The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Resupply
2x $0.51
Sure Grip
2x $2.36
Wurst Hölle
5x $1.17
Metallic Squeezer
1x $2.68
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
20.0% $27.21
Sweet Little Angels
20.0% $25.66
Monster Melt
20.0% $20.06
Rising Sun
8.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
8.0% $8.77
Control
8.0% $7.95
Max Win
$27.21 (+43.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.34 (-8.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+47.4%
Cost
$18.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.94
Ask Price EV $17.34 (-8.5%)
Bid Price EV $17.12 (-9.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.60 (-8.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.82 (-9.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.22 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.60
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.82
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $27.21 (+43.7%)
Worst Case $4.23 (-77.6%)
Volatility +47.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$5.37
Avg Loss -$12.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.23 (-77.6%)
Std Dev $8.97
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 79h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 52S //TOTAL COST $18.94 //ASK PRICE EV $17.34 //BID PRICE EV $17.12 //ASK PROFIT $-1.60 (-8.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.82 (-9.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $27.21 //VOLATILITY +47.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$27.21
+$8.27
+43.7%
$26.57
+$7.63
+40.3%
$0.64
2.4%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0571294
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
20.0%
$25.66
+$6.72
+35.5%
$25.62
+$6.68
+35.3%
$0.04
0.2%
—
SMALL WIN
20.0%
$20.06
+$1.12
+5.9%
$19.85
+$0.91
+4.8%
$0.21
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.18
-$9.76
-51.5%
$8.80
-$10.14
-53.5%
$0.38
4.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$8.77
-$10.17
-53.7%
$8.71
-$10.23
-54.0%
$0.06
0.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.95
-$10.99
-58.0%
$7.94
-$11.00
-58.1%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.26
-$14.68
-77.5%
$4.23
-$14.71
-77.7%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.23
-$14.71
-77.6%
$4.20
-$14.74
-77.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.059219499999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.2105,
"optimistic_value": 27.06,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:07.758114Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.05712939999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.05225249999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.058,
"optimistic_value": 19.89,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:50:48.644394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.039711899999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.234,
"optimistic_value": 4.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:40:13.193951Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055665981649999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.95,
"optimistic_value": 7.95,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:09.154456Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:48.462390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06622474883,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.771,
"optimistic_value": 8.75,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.535045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04876899999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.264,
"optimistic_value": 4.25,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:23.449617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8c954ff4308447d2f5b49cd3",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "516368488724860838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:59.685170Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:33.278974Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997822481944714",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:30.314694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "502857524062903528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:30.314694Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "500605942755443555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "516368541588556442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "517494336190410286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "501730992841516373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.359490Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:14.175583Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:4+collection-set-overpass-2024:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.28 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.51 Tosai 8.0% $1.31 | $10.59 +119.7% | $6.36 +31.9% | 60.0% | +75.6% | $4.82 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.28 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.50 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.82 Control 8.0% $1.67 Wave Breaker 8.0% $1.56 | $10.59 +79.8% | $6.50 +10.4% | 60.0% | +60.2% | $5.89 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.28 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.45 Control 12.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.51 Tosai 12.0% $1.31 | $10.49 +202.3% | $4.62 +33.1% | 40.0% | +109.2% | $3.47 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.28 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.45 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.51 Tosai 10.0% $1.31 | $10.49 +153.4% | $5.47 +32.2% | 50.0% | +91.3% | $4.14 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.28 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.45 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.51 Tosai 6.0% $1.31 | $10.59 +89.4% | $7.20 +28.9% | 70.0% | +59.7% | $5.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  10.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  10.0% $33.19 Shinobu  26.7% $7.54 Searing Rage  26.7% $7.47 K.O. Factory  26.7% $6.88 | $47.63 +306.4% | $13.92 +18.8% | 20.0% | +116.3% | $11.72 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  60.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  20.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  20.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +84.2% | $827.62 +16.1% | 60.0% | +83.4% | $712.79 | — |