The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Grip
1x $0.17
Night Riot
3x $0.23
Shredded
4x $0.26
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $5.01
Glitched Paint
20.0% $2.91
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $2.15
Moonrise
8.0% $1.28
Lionfish
8.0% $0.82
Wild Six
8.0% $0.71
Max Win
$5.01 (+78.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.35 (-16.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+55.2%
Cost
$2.81
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.81
Ask Price EV $2.35 (-16.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.17 (-22.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-16.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.64 (-22.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.18 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.64
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $5.01 (+78.2%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-74.7%)
Volatility +55.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.15
Avg Loss -$1.53
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-74.7%)
Std Dev $1.55
Avg Norm Float 0.4281
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 139h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 58S //TOTAL COST $2.81 //ASK PRICE EV $2.35 //BID PRICE EV $2.17 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-16.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.64 (-22.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +55.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$5.01
+$2.20
+78.2%
$4.66
+$1.85
+65.8%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN
20.0%
$2.91
+$0.10
+3.5%
$2.76
-$0.05
-1.8%
$0.15
5.1%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.15
-$0.66
-23.4%
$1.90
-$0.91
-32.4%
$0.25
11.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.28
-$1.53
-54.4%
$1.16
-$1.65
-58.7%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.82
-$1.99
-70.7%
$0.81
-$2.00
-71.2%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$2.10
-74.6%
$0.64
-$2.17
-77.2%
$0.07
10.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$2.10
-74.6%
$0.64
-$2.17
-77.2%
$0.07
10.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$2.10
-74.7%
$0.60
-$2.21
-78.6%
$0.11
15.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.321075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.286827,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9084999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:58:07.851365Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.25686,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.152,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:14.461057Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.278265,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 1.2805,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.393852,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:08.331797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.235455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.34248,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:33.142805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.34248,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:35:36.690966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8b32cce80b7dea057715aa24",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "496101493266995291",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:17.642408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "515242588554371041",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.611588Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "518620288313115652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:47.611588Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "505109489448610724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:42.772512Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:57.176810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435178804896",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:57.176810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627435179581668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:57.176810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "493850490550053316",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:28.290970Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:06:12.103306Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.50 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +239.2% | $6.14 +30.6% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.70 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Moonrise 8.0% $5.39 Lionfish 8.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 8.0% $1.75 | $33.42 +133.9% | $14.68 +2.7% | 60.0% | +70.9% | $14.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.58 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +289.8% | $5.33 +30.4% | 50.0% | +119.5% | $4.09 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.50 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +196.9% | $6.97 +29.8% | 70.0% | +92.8% | $5.37 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +159.6% | $7.80 +27.1% | 53.3% | +80.1% | $6.14 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Moonrise 2.0% $2.25 Lionfish 2.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 2.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +129.0% | $8.69 +24.8% | 60.0% | +68.4% | $6.96 | — |