The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip
1x $0.39
Flame Test
1x $1.79
Night Riot
2x $2.77
Blush Pour
1x $1.67
Shredded
2x $1.78
Arsenic Spill
1x $2.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
20.0% $33.42
Glitched Paint
20.0% $17.45
Bleeding Edge
20.0% $16.98
SWAG-7
8.0% $10.70
Arctic Wolf
8.0% $9.69
Wild Six
8.0% $6.05
Max Win
$33.42 (+64.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.41 (-19.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+48.1%
Cost
$20.31
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.31
Ask Price EV $16.41 (-19.2%)
Bid Price EV $15.69 (-22.8%)
Ask Profit $-3.90 (-19.2%)
Bid Profit $-4.62 (-22.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.73 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.90
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.62
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+64.5%)
Worst Case $3.74 (-81.6%)
Volatility +48.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$13.11
Avg Loss -$8.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.74 (-81.6%)
Std Dev $9.77
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 141h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$2.77 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Factory New
$3.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.79 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$2.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 17S //TOTAL COST $20.31 //ASK PRICE EV $16.41 //BID PRICE EV $15.69 //ASK PROFIT $-3.90 (-19.2%) //BID PROFIT $-4.62 (-22.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +48.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$33.42
+$13.11
+64.5%
$31.48
+$11.17
+55.0%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$17.45
-$2.86
-14.1%
$16.69
-$3.62
-17.8%
$0.76
4.4%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$16.98
-$3.33
-16.4%
$16.48
-$3.83
-18.9%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$10.70
-$9.61
-47.3%
$10.08
-$10.23
-50.4%
$0.62
5.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$9.69
-$10.62
-52.3%
$9.51
-$10.80
-53.2%
$0.18
1.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$6.05
-$14.26
-70.2%
$5.95
-$14.36
-70.7%
$0.10
1.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.39
-$14.92
-73.5%
$5.25
-$15.06
-74.2%
$0.14
2.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.74
-$16.57
-81.6%
$3.65
-$16.66
-82.0%
$0.09
2.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0523575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0467727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.451500000000003,
"optimistic_value": 17.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:48.147372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0453765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 5.3870000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.38,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 5.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:21.863722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0642252,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 10.698,
"optimistic_value": 10.6,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 10.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:32:27.919370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0383955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 3.742,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:35.886535Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 6.0485,
"optimistic_value": 6.01,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:12:59.465480Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 9.6875,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 9.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:54:47.342414Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8b32cce80b7dea057715aa24",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-a70d55eb979d",
"listing_id": "498354037510657507",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a70d55eb979d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:54.115179Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-42a677e4f00a",
"listing_id": "523123091077526374",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Flame Test",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42a677e4f00a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:59:41.141142Z"
},
{
"price": 2.77,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "520872035663982948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:56.674290Z"
},
{
"price": 3.08,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "502857524062905616",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:56.674290Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:29.865087Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "499479989896313401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:11.124601Z"
},
{
"price": 1.79,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "500605889841179615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:11.124601Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "500605889841257987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:10.172394Z"
},
{
"price": 2.42,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "509613089303447967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:30.907557Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "556898911189339489",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:30.907557Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.50 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +239.2% | $6.14 +30.6% | 60.0% | +106.0% | $4.70 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.45 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 Moonrise 8.0% $5.39 Lionfish 8.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 8.0% $1.75 | $33.42 +133.9% | $14.68 +2.7% | 60.0% | +70.9% | $14.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.58 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +289.8% | $5.33 +30.4% | 50.0% | +119.5% | $4.09 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.50 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +196.9% | $6.97 +29.8% | 70.0% | +92.8% | $5.37 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.95 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.50 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +159.6% | $7.80 +27.1% | 53.3% | +80.1% | $6.14 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.58 Moonrise 2.0% $2.25 Lionfish 2.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 2.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +129.0% | $8.69 +24.8% | 60.0% | +68.4% | $6.96 | — |