The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Night Riot
2x $0.23
Black Sand
1x $0.30
Shredded
1x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.28
Rose Hex
4x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.99
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.10
Moonrise
6.0% $1.28
Lionfish
6.0% $0.82
Arctic Wolf
6.0% $0.73
Max Win
$5.01 (+67.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.61 (-12.6%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+51.6%
Cost
$2.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.99
Ask Price EV $2.61 (-12.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.41 (-19.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.38 (-12.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.58 (-19.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.58
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+67.4%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-76.3%)
Volatility +51.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$1.01
Avg Loss -$1.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-76.3%)
Std Dev $1.54
Avg Norm Float 0.4497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 143h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Black Sand
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 20S //TOTAL COST $2.99 //ASK PRICE EV $2.61 //BID PRICE EV $2.41 //ASK PROFIT $-0.38 (-12.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.58 (-19.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +51.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$2.02
+67.4%
$4.66
+$1.67
+55.9%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN
23.3%
$2.99
+$0.00
+0.1%
$2.76
-$0.23
-7.7%
$0.23
7.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.10
-$0.89
-29.8%
$1.91
-$1.08
-36.1%
$0.19
9.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.28
-$1.71
-57.2%
$1.16
-$1.83
-61.2%
$0.12
9.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.82
-$2.17
-72.5%
$0.81
-$2.18
-72.9%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.73
-$2.26
-75.6%
$0.64
-$2.35
-78.6%
$0.09
12.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.28
-76.1%
$0.64
-$2.35
-78.6%
$0.07
10.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$2.28
-76.3%
$0.60
-$2.39
-79.9%
$0.11
15.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-19|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.337275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.301299,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9935,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:52.376119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.26982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:22.758042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.292305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-52971a3886a2",
"realistic_value": 1.2805,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:37:50.800531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-52971a3886a2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.413724,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0063cb51e43",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:10.576276Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0063cb51e43.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.24733500000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-58651a482529",
"realistic_value": 0.8234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Negev | Lionfish",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Lionfish (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:46:22.743385Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-58651a482529.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-85bee1ae1898",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wild Six",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:30:21.901187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85bee1ae1898.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.35976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a4ca18460f2c",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Clutch Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:35:07.776827Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a4ca18460f2c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a37d950da00cb58809e821f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "506235389469616620",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:33:03.625301Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-906fd7b3b38a",
"listing_id": "508487189340261854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Riot",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-906fd7b3b38a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:33:03.625301Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-cbffebebb7f3",
"listing_id": "502857689862544408",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-19",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cbffebebb7f3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:53:02.054370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:50.099570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "509613089304634059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:31.365175Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "505109489449170920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:47:31.365175Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:13.900274Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-19:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.85 Moonrise 6.0% $2.25 Lionfish 6.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 6.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +201.4% | $7.00 +32.4% | 70.0% | +93.8% | $5.29 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Moonrise 6.0% $5.40 Lionfish 6.0% $3.74 SWAG-7 6.0% $1.77 | $33.42 +112.4% | $16.60 +5.5% | 70.0% | +62.5% | $15.73 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Clutch Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Moonrise 8.0% $2.25 Lionfish 8.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 8.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +247.3% | $6.18 +34.7% | 60.0% | +108.0% | $4.59 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Moonrise 10.0% $2.25 Lionfish 10.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 10.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +295.6% | $5.35 +32.7% | 50.0% | +120.9% | $4.03 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Moonrise 4.0% $2.25 Lionfish 4.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 4.0% $0.83 | $15.94 +165.2% | $7.86 +30.8% | 53.3% | +81.0% | $6.01 | — |
The Clutch Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.74 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.85 Moonrise 2.0% $2.25 Lionfish 2.0% $1.29 SWAG-7 2.0% $0.80 | $15.94 +135.5% | $8.68 +28.1% | 30.0% | +70.1% | $6.77 | — |