The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Rebel
2x $0.12
Re.built
2x $0.13
Yeti Camo
2x $0.26
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.31
Reef Grief
2x $0.37
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
30.0% $1.26
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
8.0% $0.74
Neoqueen
8.0% $0.65
Banana Cannon
8.0% $0.64
Max Win
$6.93 (+176.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.72 (+8.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+110.2%
Cost
$2.51
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.51
Ask Price EV $2.72 (+8.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.34 (-6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+8.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.17 (-6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+15.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.17
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+176.1%)
Worst Case $0.55 (-78.0%)
Volatility +110.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.42
Avg Loss -$1.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.55 (-78.0%)
Std Dev $2.77
Avg Norm Float 0.4257
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 154h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 05S //TOTAL COST $2.51 //ASK PRICE EV $2.72 //BID PRICE EV $2.34 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+8.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.17 (-6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +110.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.93
+$4.42
+176.1%
$5.76
+$3.25
+129.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$1.26
-$1.25
-49.8%
$1.24
-$1.27
-50.6%
$0.02
1.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.75
-$1.76
-70.2%
$0.70
-$1.81
-72.1%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.74
-$1.77
-70.5%
$0.69
-$1.82
-72.5%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$1.86
-74.2%
$0.61
-$1.90
-75.7%
$0.04
5.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.64
-$1.87
-74.4%
$0.55
-$1.96
-78.1%
$0.09
14.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.55
-$1.96
-78.0%
$0.51
-$2.00
-79.7%
$0.04
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.319305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.255444,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2610000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:49.298707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.319305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.340592,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.45692920000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.552,
"optimistic_value": 0.51,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:43.385442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.255444,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.647,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:11:54.623650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.42574,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6435,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:43:10.331581Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a364a3db19a59ddbf742fe0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "506235442368226536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:42.237672Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "516368541589477214",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:14:22.850973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "518620122759318232",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:14:22.850973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "518619491429205748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:42.237672Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:01.649746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "509613142168236027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:26.530223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:01.649746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:26.530223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886126067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "503983642533425455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.42 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.05 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +205.9% | $7.51 +27.0% | 30.0% | +116.9% | $5.91 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.23 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 8.0% $3.15 Banana Cannon 8.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +179.4% | $16.61 +19.2% | 30.0% | +105.4% | $13.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.42 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.06 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +279.0% | $6.43 +34.8% | 50.0% | +141.2% | $4.77 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.27 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.14 Banana Cannon 6.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.56 | $38.92 +156.6% | $18.99 +25.2% | 35.0% | +96.6% | $15.17 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 2.0% $3.14 Banana Cannon 2.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $1.56 | $38.92 +101.0% | $23.73 +22.6% | 45.0% | +71.0% | $19.36 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.23 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 4.0% $3.15 Banana Cannon 4.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +122.9% | $21.34 +22.2% | 40.0% | +82.2% | $17.46 | — |