The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Insomnia
1x $0.41
Re.built
1x $0.43
Fragments
1x $0.89
Cyberforce
1x $1.45
Reef Grief
4x $1.31
Royal Baroque
2x $1.44
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
30.0% $13.23
Umbral Rabbit
8.0% $4.31
Neoqueen
8.0% $3.15
Banana Cannon
8.0% $1.61
Emphorosaur-S
8.0% $1.50
Max Win
$38.92 (+179.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.61 (+19.2%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+109.8%
Cost
$13.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.93
Ask Price EV $16.61 (+19.2%)
Bid Price EV $15.18 (+9.0%)
Ask Profit $2.68 (+19.2%)
Bid Profit $1.25 (+9.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.42 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.25
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+179.4%)
Worst Case $1.42 (-89.8%)
Volatility +109.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$24.99
Avg Loss -$6.89
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.42 (-89.8%)
Std Dev $15.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 106h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAG-7 | Insomnia
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 22S //TOTAL COST $13.93 //ASK PRICE EV $16.61 //BID PRICE EV $15.18 //ASK PROFIT $2.68 (+19.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.25 (+9.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +109.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$38.92
+$24.99
+179.4%
$34.38
+$20.45
+146.8%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$13.23
-$0.70
-5.0%
$13.08
-$0.85
-6.1%
$0.15
1.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$4.31
-$9.62
-69.0%
$4.29
-$9.64
-69.2%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.15
-$10.78
-77.4%
$3.12
-$10.81
-77.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.61
-$12.32
-88.4%
$1.58
-$12.35
-88.7%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.50
-$12.43
-89.3%
$1.39
-$12.54
-90.0%
$0.11
7.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.42
-$12.51
-89.8%
$1.41
-$12.52
-89.9%
$0.01
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.055931999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.2315,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.144800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:42.265497Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.074576,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.4969999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:03:01.383616Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2640676,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.42,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:34.250835Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055931999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.1505,
"optimistic_value": 3.14,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:38.927091Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09322,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T10:05:40.697941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a364a3db19a59ddbf742fe0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-e6a7543c4187",
"listing_id": "508487189340726758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Insomnia (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Insomnia",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e6a7543c4187.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:35.691842Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:26.881688Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "511864941881795685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:36.841033Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "516368541589225970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:22.527285Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:58.617513Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "526501640650962185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "516368541588522710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "492724590627215313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.42 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.05 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +205.9% | $7.51 +27.0% | 30.0% | +116.9% | $5.91 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Neoqueen 8.0% $0.65 Banana Cannon 8.0% $0.64 | $6.93 +176.1% | $2.72 +8.5% | 30.0% | +107.4% | $2.51 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.42 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.06 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +279.0% | $6.43 +34.8% | 50.0% | +141.2% | $4.77 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.27 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.14 Banana Cannon 6.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.56 | $38.92 +156.6% | $18.99 +25.2% | 35.0% | +96.6% | $15.17 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 2.0% $3.14 Banana Cannon 2.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $1.56 | $38.92 +101.0% | $23.73 +22.6% | 45.0% | +71.0% | $19.36 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.23 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 4.0% $3.15 Banana Cannon 4.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.50 | $38.92 +122.9% | $21.34 +22.2% | 40.0% | +82.2% | $17.46 | — |