The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Leafhopper
3x $0.13
Tiger Tear
2x $0.15
Mustard Gas
2x $0.15
Garter-9
1x $0.20
Copper Fiber
1x $0.08
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $4.61
Green Line
5.0% $3.09
Late Night Transit
5.0% $2.82
2A2F
5.0% $2.67
Run Run Run
5.0% $2.24
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $1.82
Max Win
$4.61 (+209.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.77 (+18.8%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+103.2%
Cost
$1.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.49
Ask Price EV $1.77 (+18.8%)
Bid Price EV $1.60 (+7.4%)
Ask Profit $0.28 (+18.8%)
Bid Profit $0.11 (+7.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+11.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+209.4%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-72.5%)
Volatility +103.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$1.53
Avg Loss -$1.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-72.5%)
Std Dev $1.54
Avg Norm Float 0.1484
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 124h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 25S //TOTAL COST $1.49 //ASK PRICE EV $1.77 //BID PRICE EV $1.60 //ASK PROFIT $0.28 (+18.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.11 (+7.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +103.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$4.61
+$3.12
+209.4%
$3.81
+$2.32
+155.7%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$3.09
+$1.60
+107.4%
$3.05
+$1.56
+104.7%
$0.04
1.3%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$2.82
+$1.33
+89.5%
$2.81
+$1.32
+88.6%
$0.01
0.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$2.67
+$1.18
+79.4%
$2.64
+$1.15
+77.2%
$0.03
1.3%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$2.24
+$0.75
+50.6%
$2.22
+$0.73
+49.0%
$0.02
1.0%
—
WIN
16.0%
$1.82
+$0.33
+22.2%
$1.70
+$0.21
+14.1%
$0.12
6.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.42
-$1.07
-71.6%
$0.41
-$1.08
-72.5%
$0.01
3.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.42
-$1.07
-72.0%
$0.38
-$1.11
-74.5%
$0.04
8.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.41
-$1.08
-72.5%
$0.35
-$1.14
-76.5%
$0.06
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.111315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1009256,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.4235,
"optimistic_value": 0.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08905199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.417,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:39.275072Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08163100000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.08905199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.41,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:28.291504Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.12764119999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.6735,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.14842,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 3.0905,
"optimistic_value": 3.08,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:37.971627Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.14842,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 2.8235,
"optimistic_value": 2.82,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1108066615,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a3362b90cf6c0430bec4301",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "499480042828071541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:27:45.778398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:39.785957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "518620341243201844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:33.722624Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "527627322006707756",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:39.785957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "493850543432165764",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:27:45.778398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "515242423032787825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:24:33.722624Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:27:45.778398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123940969116258",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:23.109398Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "524249840858755191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:54.609973Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532519875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:14.637481Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Green Line 5.0% $0.94 Late Night Transit 5.0% $0.84 2A2F 5.0% $0.71 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.47 +30.9% | 37.0% | +116.2% | $1.12 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 5.0% $28.83 2A2F 5.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 5.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 5.0% $11.23 Wintergreen 16.0% $10.66 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 | $28.83 +380.5% | $6.67 +11.2% | 36.0% | +105.6% | $6.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 2.5% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Green Line 2.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 2.5% $0.84 2A2F 2.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.51 +34.8% | 38.5% | +119.7% | $1.12 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Green Line 7.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 7.5% $0.83 2A2F 7.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.44 +24.9% | 35.5% | +108.8% | $1.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  13.3% $64.86 Derailment  13.3% $42.56 Charged Up  13.3% $22.67 Sheet Lightning  30.0% $17.31 Glockingbird  30.0% $11.95 | $64.86 +195.1% | $26.12 +18.8% | 40.0% | +81.6% | $21.98 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  30.0% $294.44 Green Energy  40.0% $109.76 | $597.10 +133.1% | $311.37 +21.5% | 60.0% | +78.9% | $256.19 | — |