The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Garter-9
1x $0.27
Polished Malachite
1x $0.31
Tiger Tear
1x $0.35
Marsh
3x $0.50
Mustard Gas
2x $0.54
Straight Dimes
1x $0.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
5.0% $28.83
2A2F
5.0% $18.79
Late Night Transit
5.0% $14.75
Run Run Run
5.0% $11.23
Wintergreen
16.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $3.67
Max Win
$28.83 (+336.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.67 (+1.1%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+110.5%
Cost
$6.60
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $6.60
Ask Price EV $6.67 (+1.1%)
Bid Price EV $6.25 (-5.3%)
Ask Profit $0.07 (+1.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.35 (-5.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.42 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+336.8%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-80.5%)
Volatility +110.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 64.0%
Avg Win +$8.36
Avg Loss -$4.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-80.5%)
Std Dev $7.29
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 151h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Straight Dimes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 50S //TOTAL COST $6.60 //ASK PRICE EV $6.67 //BID PRICE EV $6.25 //ASK PROFIT $0.07 (+1.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.35 (-5.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +110.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$28.83
+$22.23
+336.8%
$26.37
+$19.77
+299.5%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$18.79
+$12.19
+184.7%
$18.05
+$11.45
+173.5%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$14.75
+$8.15
+123.5%
$14.50
+$7.90
+119.7%
$0.25
1.7%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$11.23
+$4.63
+70.1%
$9.36
+$2.76
+41.8%
$1.87
16.6%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.66
+$4.06
+61.5%
$9.81
+$3.21
+48.6%
$0.85
8.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.67
-$2.93
-44.4%
$3.64
-$2.96
-44.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.57
-$5.04
-76.3%
$1.49
-$5.11
-77.4%
$0.07
4.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$5.07
-76.8%
$1.52
-$5.08
-77.0%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.29
-$5.31
-80.5%
$1.28
-$5.32
-80.6%
$0.01
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0475932,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:20.709815Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.565,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:03.136472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0384945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:14.406786Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0601914,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.052252784249999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a3362b90cf6c0430bec4301",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "511864888985873745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:48.686936Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "642467916640465877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:15.759261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "509613142167867027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:39.973629Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "520872141037700292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:56.601429Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "496101493261057775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.120823Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:13.120823Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:56.601429Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:56.601429Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0c162dc3dadb",
"listing_id": "496102343225883647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Straight Dimes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0c162dc3dadb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:36.085652Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "518620341243096976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:59.338415Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Green Line 5.0% $0.94 Late Night Transit 5.0% $0.83 2A2F 5.0% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.47 +27.8% | 37.0% | +113.1% | $1.15 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Green Line 5.0% $3.08 Late Night Transit 5.0% $2.82 2A2F 5.0% $2.67 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +188.1% | $1.77 +10.9% | 52.0% | +76.0% | $1.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 2.5% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Green Line 2.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 2.5% $0.83 2A2F 2.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.50 +30.8% | 38.5% | +116.8% | $1.15 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Wintergreen 12.0% $10.66 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 | $28.83 +286.9% | $9.61 +28.9% | 52.0% | +97.4% | $7.45 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.32 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Green Line 7.5% $0.93 Late Night Transit 7.5% $0.83 2A2F 7.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.44 +24.9% | 35.5% | +109.1% | $1.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  13.3% $64.86 Derailment  13.3% $41.46 Charged Up  13.3% $22.60 Sheet Lightning  30.0% $17.10 Glockingbird  30.0% $11.94 | $64.86 +191.8% | $25.90 +16.5% | 40.0% | +80.2% | $22.23 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  30.0% $294.44 Green Energy  40.0% $109.76 | $597.10 +132.7% | $311.37 +21.4% | 60.0% | +78.8% | $256.56 | — |