The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Marsh
3x $0.06
Leafhopper
3x $0.08
Tiger Tear
1x $0.15
Acid Dart
1x $0.17
Copper Fiber
1x $0.08
Steel Sentinel
1x $0.12
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $4.61
Run Run Run
5.0% $2.24
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $1.82
Green Line
5.0% $0.94
Late Night Transit
5.0% $0.83
2A2F
5.0% $0.71
Max Win
$4.61 (+300.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.47 (+27.8%)
Win %
37.0%
Volatility
+129.4%
Cost
$1.15
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.15
Ask Price EV $1.47 (+27.8%)
Bid Price EV $1.30 (+12.7%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+27.8%)
Bid Profit $0.15 (+12.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+15.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 37.0%
Loss Probability 63.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+300.9%)
Worst Case $0.38 (-66.6%)
Volatility +129.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 58.0%
Avg Win +$1.93
Avg Loss -$0.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.38 (-66.6%)
Std Dev $1.49
Avg Norm Float 0.1992
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 125h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 44S //TOTAL COST $1.15 //ASK PRICE EV $1.47 //BID PRICE EV $1.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+27.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.15 (+12.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 37.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +129.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.61
+$3.46
+300.9%
$3.81
+$2.66
+231.3%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$2.24
+$1.09
+95.1%
$2.22
+$1.07
+93.0%
$0.02
1.0%
—
BIG WIN
16.0%
$1.82
+$0.67
+58.3%
$1.70
+$0.55
+47.8%
$0.12
6.6%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$0.94
-$0.21
-18.3%
$0.89
-$0.26
-22.6%
$0.05
5.3%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$0.83
-$0.32
-27.8%
$0.82
-$0.33
-28.7%
$0.01
1.2%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$0.71
-$0.44
-38.3%
$0.70
-$0.45
-39.1%
$0.01
1.4%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.49
-$0.66
-57.4%
$0.41
-$0.74
-64.3%
$0.08
16.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.40
-$0.75
-64.9%
$0.38
-$0.77
-67.0%
$0.02
5.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$0.38
-$0.77
-66.6%
$0.35
-$0.80
-69.6%
$0.03
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1493925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.13544920000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.49,
"optimistic_value": 0.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:21.311019Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.119514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 0.4035,
"optimistic_value": 0.4,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.308333Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.10955450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 1.821,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.839903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.119514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 0.384,
"optimistic_value": 0.37,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 0.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:22.845754Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1713034,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:19.268858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.19919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:18.919983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.19919,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:02.874192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.14871027425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:51.158892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8a3362b90cf6c0430bec4301",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "498354142900183711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:42.128370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "527627487624253760",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:42.128370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "502856892559649080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:42.128370Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "519746135814788696",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:31.833705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:20:44.003827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "512990623227020543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:38:07.170691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:33.476871Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:38:07.170691Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "524249840858755191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:38:14.555261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532511991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:57.943587Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8+collection-set-train-2025:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Green Line 5.0% $3.08 Late Night Transit 5.0% $2.82 2A2F 5.0% $2.67 Run Run Run 5.0% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 | $4.61 +188.1% | $1.77 +10.9% | 52.0% | +76.0% | $1.60 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 5.0% $28.83 2A2F 5.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 5.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 5.0% $11.23 Wintergreen 16.0% $10.66 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 | $28.83 +336.8% | $6.67 +1.1% | 36.0% | +96.0% | $6.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 2.5% $2.24 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Green Line 2.5% $0.94 Late Night Transit 2.5% $0.83 2A2F 2.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.50 +30.8% | 38.5% | +116.8% | $1.15 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Wintergreen 12.0% $10.66 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $3.67 | $28.83 +286.9% | $9.61 +28.9% | 52.0% | +97.4% | $7.45 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Run Run Run 7.5% $2.32 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Green Line 7.5% $0.93 Late Night Transit 7.5% $0.83 2A2F 7.5% $0.71 | $4.61 +300.9% | $1.44 +24.9% | 35.5% | +109.1% | $1.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  13.3% $64.86 Derailment  13.3% $41.46 Charged Up  13.3% $22.60 Sheet Lightning  30.0% $17.10 Glockingbird  30.0% $11.94 | $64.86 +191.8% | $25.90 +16.5% | 40.0% | +80.2% | $22.23 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  30.0% $294.44 Green Energy  40.0% $109.76 | $597.10 +132.7% | $311.37 +21.4% | 60.0% | +78.8% | $256.56 | — |