The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
PC-GRN
1x $0.47
Resupply
2x $1.69
Mockingbird
1x $1.70
Sure Grip
1x $2.87
Metallic Squeezer
2x $1.03
Wurst Hölle
2x $1.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
16.7% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
16.7% $25.66
Monster Melt
16.7% $20.12
Rising Sun
10.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
10.0% $8.82
Control
10.0% $8.00
Max Win
$27.45 (+59.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.67 (-9.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+53.1%
Cost
$17.23
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $17.23
Ask Price EV $15.67 (-9.1%)
Bid Price EV $15.46 (-10.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.56 (-9.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.77 (-10.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.77
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $27.45 (+59.3%)
Worst Case $4.28 (-75.2%)
Volatility +53.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.18
Avg Loss -$10.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.28 (-75.2%)
Std Dev $9.15
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 67h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.69 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 06M 13S //TOTAL COST $17.23 //ASK PRICE EV $15.67 //BID PRICE EV $15.46 //ASK PROFIT $-1.56 (-9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.77 (-10.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +53.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$27.45
+$10.22
+59.3%
$26.69
+$9.46
+54.9%
$0.76
2.8%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0572114
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
16.7%
$25.66
+$8.43
+48.9%
$25.62
+$8.39
+48.7%
$0.04
0.2%
—
WIN
16.7%
$20.12
+$2.89
+16.8%
$19.85
+$2.62
+15.2%
$0.27
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.18
-$8.05
-46.7%
$9.00
-$8.23
-47.8%
$0.18
2.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.82
-$8.41
-48.8%
$8.78
-$8.45
-49.0%
$0.04
0.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.00
-$9.23
-53.6%
$7.98
-$9.25
-53.7%
$0.02
0.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.32
-$12.91
-74.9%
$4.30
-$12.93
-75.0%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.28
-$12.95
-75.2%
$4.23
-$13.00
-75.4%
$0.05
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.059304499999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:28.595174Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.057211399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0523275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:46.916177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.039768899999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.28,
"optimistic_value": 4.28,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 4.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:34.466912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05574588115,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.997,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:59.705574Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06977,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.184000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:41.424731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06631980373,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.8175,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:00.759661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048838999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.32,
"optimistic_value": 4.32,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:32.291595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_87c7b9cb2f6429672991794f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "494976390475602006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:10.890376Z"
},
{
"price": 1.69,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "511864888984897605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:30.734890Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "519746188258523816",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:33.946489Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:30.734890Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "502857524062903528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:50.047283Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:57.125359Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:43.472647Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "490472790737051835",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:35.722523Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "510738989040407230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:10.932250Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-overpass-2024:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.16 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Control 10.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 10.0% $1.45 Tosai 10.0% $1.39 | $10.72 +154.1% | $5.50 +30.4% | 50.0% | +90.1% | $4.22 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.72 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.16 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.50 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 Control 10.0% $1.67 Wave Breaker 10.0% $1.61 | $10.72 +103.9% | $5.69 +8.2% | 50.0% | +70.3% | $5.26 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 16.7% $4.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $4.05 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 Tosai 10.0% $0.72 | $4.33 +81.3% | $2.45 +2.5% | 50.0% | +64.1% | $2.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.68 Control 12.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 12.0% $1.55 Tosai 12.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +200.0% | $4.71 +31.3% | 40.0% | +108.0% | $3.59 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.42 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.68 Control 8.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 8.0% $1.55 Tosai 8.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +116.7% | $6.46 +30.0% | 60.0% | +74.5% | $4.97 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.42 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.68 Control 6.0% $1.67 Serpent Strike 6.0% $1.55 Tosai 6.0% $1.34 | $10.77 +86.7% | $7.33 +27.1% | 70.0% | +58.8% | $5.77 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crakow!  15.0% $47.63 Dragon Snore  15.0% $33.43 Shinobu  23.3% $7.61 Searing Rage  23.3% $6.88 K.O. Factory  23.3% $6.67 | $47.63 +228.5% | $17.10 +17.9% | 30.0% | +109.2% | $14.50 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  70.0% $1,312.69 Printstream  15.0% $117.26 Bad Trip  15.0% $82.77 | $1,312.69 +61.1% | $948.89 +16.5% | 70.0% | +68.2% | $814.65 | — |