The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +33.9%Factory New -8.9%Well-Worn +4.7%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Metallic Squeezer

1x $0.39

Pipsqueak

1x $0.42

Sky Mandala

2x $0.34

Warm Blooded

6x $0.47

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

40.0% $7.31

Eye of Zapems

6.7% $4.33

Monster Melt

6.7% $4.11

Sweet Little Angels

6.7% $4.05

Sleeping Potion

40.0% $2.49

Max Win

$7.31 (+61.1%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.75 (+4.7%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+48.0%

Cost

$4.54

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $4.54

Ask Price EV $4.75 (+4.7%)

Bid Price EV $4.48 (-1.3%)

Ask Profit $0.21 (+4.7%)

Bid Profit $-0.06 (-1.3%)

Liquidity Gap $0.27 (+5.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.06

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $7.31 (+61.1%)

Worst Case $2.49 (-45.3%)

Volatility +48.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$2.77

Avg Loss -$1.50

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.49 (-45.3%)

Std Dev $2.18

Avg Norm Float 0.4496

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 64h 37m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Pipsqueak

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.47 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 56S //TOTAL COST $4.54 //ASK PRICE EV $4.75 //BID PRICE EV $4.48 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+4.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.06 (-1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +48.0% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.31469199999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3135,
      "optimistic_value": 7.24,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.31469199999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.4855,
      "optimistic_value": 2.44,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:34.263433Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.382126,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 4.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 4.19,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 3.48,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:19:07.725357Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.3686392,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 4.0475,
      "optimistic_value": 4.03,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 4.02,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:15:46.518442Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.33717,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 4.1075,
      "optimistic_value": 4.02,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 3.94,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:37.201365Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_8786a32341e6af4f04a6a4a1",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
      "listing_id": "519746188258421540",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:33.423807Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
      "listing_id": "517494388633440706",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:12.266201Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:52.782325Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "508487189340181502",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589619183691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697390585",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.14	$9.85 +141.4%	$5.46 +33.9%	40.0%	+88.6%	$4.08	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.14	$9.85 +149.4%	$5.20 +31.6%	45.0%	+87.5%	$3.95	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.15	$9.85 +156.5%	$4.93 +28.4%	43.3%	+85.2%	$3.84	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.15	$9.85 +164.1%	$4.67 +25.1%	41.7%	+81.8%	$3.73	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.57 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.14	$9.85 +165.5%	$4.53 +22.1%	40.0%	+73.5%	$3.71	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.42 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.68	$13.75 +53.8%	$10.52 +17.7%	73.3%	+16.3%	$8.94	—