The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Metallic Squeezer
1x $0.32
Pipsqueak
1x $0.34
Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
3x $0.35
Warm Blooded
1x $0.54
Earth Mandala
2x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Monster Melt
6.7% $3.97
Eye of Zapems
6.7% $3.12
Sweet Little Angels
6.7% $2.91
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.14
Max Win
$9.85 (+106.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.46 (+14.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+75.6%
Cost
$4.78
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $4.78
Ask Price EV $5.46 (+14.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.07 (-14.8%)
Ask Profit $0.68 (+14.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.71 (-14.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.39 (+29.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.68
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.71
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $9.85 (+106.1%)
Worst Case $2.14 (-55.2%)
Volatility +75.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$5.07
Avg Loss -$2.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.14 (-55.2%)
Std Dev $3.61
Avg Norm Float 0.5652
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 141h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 18S //TOTAL COST $4.78 //ASK PRICE EV $5.46 //BID PRICE EV $4.07 //ASK PROFIT $0.68 (+14.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.71 (-14.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +75.6% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
40.0%
$9.85
+$5.07
+106.1%
$6.64
+$1.86
+38.9%
$3.21
32.6%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$3.97
-$0.81
-17.0%
$3.48
-$1.30
-27.2%
$0.49
12.3%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$3.12
-$1.66
-34.7%
$3.05
-$1.73
-36.2%
$0.07
2.3%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Battle-Scarred | ƒ 0.463464
The Overpass 2024 Collection
LOSS
6.7%
$2.91
-$1.87
-39.1%
$2.80
-$1.98
-41.4%
$0.11
3.8%
—
NUKE
40.0%
$2.14
-$2.64
-55.2%
$1.99
-$2.79
-58.4%
$0.15
7.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.39564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 9.8505,
"optimistic_value": 9.77,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.39564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:34.742372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.48042,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 3.121,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:36.889388Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.463464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 2.9115,
"optimistic_value": 2.81,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:51.036748Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.42390000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 3.9675000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 3.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T14:41:55.011379Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8786a32341e6af4f04a6a4a1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "520872088105850856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:17.483021Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"listing_id": "528753387757469169",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:35.419833Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "503983589619270235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "492724590626378025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:25.541051Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:27.433717Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "519746188258624796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:21.084633Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494976390476381946",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:56.079211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "499479989895637069",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:57.798287Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +158.5% | $4.93 +29.4% | 43.3% | +85.8% | $3.81 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +145.0% | $5.20 +29.3% | 35.0% | +86.0% | $4.02 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $3.57 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +162.0% | $4.78 +27.0% | 41.7% | +79.7% | $3.76 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.57 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.14 | $9.85 +164.8% | $4.53 +21.8% | 40.0% | +73.3% | $3.72 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.74 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.46 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.63 | $12.78 +44.7% | $10.41 +17.9% | 73.3% | +14.5% | $8.83 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $7.64 Eye of Zapems 23.3% $4.33 Monster Melt 23.3% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $3.57 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.56 | $7.64 +106.9% | $4.30 +16.5% | 61.7% | +40.9% | $3.69 | — |