The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +33.9%Factory New -8.9%Well-Worn +4.7%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Wurst Hölle

1x $1.17

Teal Graf

1x $2.18

Warm Blooded

7x $2.27

Sky Mandala

1x $3.96

↓

Possible Outputs

Eye of Zapems

6.7% $27.47

Exothermic

40.0% $26.79

Sweet Little Angels

6.7% $25.66

Sleeping Potion

40.0% $24.63

Monster Melt

6.7% $20.12

Max Win

$27.47 (-1.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$25.45 (-8.9%)

Win %

0.0%

Volatility

+6.4%

Cost

$27.93

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $27.93

Ask Price EV $25.45 (-8.9%)

Bid Price EV $24.09 (-13.7%)

Ask Profit $-2.48 (-8.9%)

Bid Profit $-3.84 (-13.7%)

Liquidity Gap $1.36 (+4.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.48

Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.84

Risk

Win Probability 0.00%

Loss Probability 100.0%

Best Case $27.47 (-1.6%)

Worst Case $20.12 (-28.0%)

Volatility +6.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 6.7%

Avg Win —

Avg Loss -$2.48

Bottom 5% Outcome $20.12 (-28.0%)

Std Dev $1.78

Avg Norm Float 0.0693

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 12m

Oldest Output Price 66h 52m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Nova | Wurst Hölle

—

Minimal Wear

$1.17 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Teal Graf

—

Factory New

$2.18 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.59 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$3.07 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.96 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$5.15 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 57S //TOTAL COST $27.93 //ASK PRICE EV $25.45 //BID PRICE EV $24.09 //ASK PROFIT $-2.48 (-8.9%) //BID PROFIT $-3.84 (-13.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $27.47 //VOLATILITY +6.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.048482,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.787,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.92,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:26.098048Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.048482,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.058871,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
      "realistic_value": 27.472,
      "optimistic_value": 27.43,
      "output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
      "conservative_value": 26.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:24:17.292234Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.056793199999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
      "realistic_value": 25.661,
      "optimistic_value": 25.64,
      "output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
      "conservative_value": 25.62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
      "output_float": 0.051945000000000005,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
      "realistic_value": 20.116500000000002,
      "optimistic_value": 19.98,
      "output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
      "conservative_value": 19.85,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:19.630056Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_8786a32341e6af4f04a6a4a1",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
      "listing_id": "523123888072288378",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:13.272435Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
      "listing_id": "490472790737051835",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:01.415603Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737055183",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605724248646447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620235868493708",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "505109323870001060",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "501731789729270537",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:34.539038Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997822478339278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.208125Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 6.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.14	$9.85 +141.4%	$5.46 +33.9%	40.0%	+88.6%	$4.08	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 40.0% $7.31 Eye of Zapems 6.7% $4.33 Monster Melt 6.7% $4.11 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $4.05 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.49	$7.31 +61.1%	$4.75 +4.7%	40.0%	+48.0%	$4.54	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 10.0% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 10.0% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.14	$9.85 +149.4%	$5.20 +31.6%	45.0%	+87.5%	$3.95	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 30.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 13.3% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 13.3% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.15	$9.85 +156.5%	$4.93 +28.4%	43.3%	+85.2%	$3.84	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 16.7% $3.97 Eye of Zapems 16.7% $3.12 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $2.91 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.15	$9.85 +164.1%	$4.67 +25.1%	41.7%	+81.8%	$3.73	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Monster Melt 20.0% $3.97 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $3.57 Eye of Zapems 20.0% $3.12 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.14	$9.85 +165.5%	$4.53 +22.1%	40.0%	+73.5%	$3.71	—
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Eye of Zapems 26.7% $10.77 Sweet Little Angels 26.7% $10.42 Monster Melt 26.7% $8.68	$13.75 +53.8%	$10.52 +17.7%	73.3%	+16.3%	$8.94	—