The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Orange Peel
1x $0.08
VariCamo
3x $0.11
Cold Fusion
3x $0.07
Mainframe
3x $0.10
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
15.0% $2.51
Exchanger
15.0% $2.42
Co-Processor
15.0% $2.26
Facility Negative
15.0% $2.22
Damascus Steel
13.3% $0.71
VariCamo
13.3% $0.70
Max Win
$2.51 (+87.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.69 (+26.2%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+60.9%
Cost
$1.34
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.34
Ask Price EV $1.69 (+26.2%)
Bid Price EV $1.57 (+17.4%)
Ask Profit $0.35 (+26.2%)
Bid Profit $0.23 (+17.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+8.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.35
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $2.51 (+87.6%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-48.5%)
Volatility +60.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$1.01
Avg Loss -$0.64
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-48.5%)
Std Dev $0.82
Avg Norm Float 0.1399
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 31h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 22S //TOTAL COST $1.34 //ASK PRICE EV $1.69 //BID PRICE EV $1.57 //ASK PROFIT $0.35 (+26.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.23 (+17.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $2.51 //VOLATILITY +60.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$2.51
+$1.17
+87.6%
$2.19
+$0.85
+63.4%
$0.32
12.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.42
+$1.08
+80.3%
$2.36
+$1.02
+76.1%
$0.06
2.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.26
+$0.92
+68.7%
$2.04
+$0.70
+52.2%
$0.22
9.7%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.22
+$0.88
+65.9%
$2.16
+$0.82
+61.2%
$0.06
2.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.71
-$0.63
-47.2%
$0.65
-$0.69
-51.5%
$0.06
8.1%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.70
-$0.64
-48.0%
$0.64
-$0.70
-52.2%
$0.06
8.2%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.69
-$0.65
-48.5%
$0.66
-$0.68
-50.7%
$0.03
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1160838,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.5135,
"optimistic_value": 2.44,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:52.700309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.26,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:40.400884Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:59.770296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2235,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:49.831265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.083916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 0.697,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:00:48.772116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:33.716963Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.13986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 0.707,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:46.576297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_876d3e2cfeafbf7c44993e19",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "523123835629108954",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:06.650277Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "515242588553440297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:22.657826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "511864091800550745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:22.657826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "499479193098554197",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:22.657826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:02:51.582571Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:17.503525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:17.503525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "497227393161145157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:17.503525Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "508487189340065654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.493903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605889840729975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.493903Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 17.5% $2.51 Exchanger 17.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 17.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 17.5% $2.22 Damascus Steel 10.0% $0.72 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $2.51 +77.0% | $1.86 +30.8% | 70.0% | +47.0% | $1.42 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.65 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.22 Damascus Steel 16.7% $0.71 VariCamo 16.7% $0.70 | $2.65 +105.4% | $1.54 +19.6% | 50.0% | +60.4% | $1.29 | — |