The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Orange Peel
2x $0.31
Safari Mesh
1x $0.51
VariCamo
1x $1.76
Cold Fusion
2x $0.25
Bulkhead
1x $0.42
Mainframe
3x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
15.0% $17.37
Brass
13.3% $9.44
Damascus Steel
13.3% $4.76
VariCamo
13.3% $2.94
Exchanger
15.0% $2.42
Co-Processor
15.0% $2.23
Max Win
$17.37 (+153.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.92 (-13.7%)
Win %
28.3%
Volatility
+78.0%
Cost
$6.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.86
Ask Price EV $5.92 (-13.7%)
Bid Price EV $5.79 (-15.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.94 (-13.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.07 (-15.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.14 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.94
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.07
Risk
Win Probability 28.3%
Loss Probability 71.7%
Best Case $17.37 (+153.2%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-67.6%)
Volatility +78.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 71.7%
Avg Win +$6.78
Avg Loss -$3.99
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-67.6%)
Std Dev $5.35
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 142h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
AK-47 | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$1.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Bulkhead
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 00S //TOTAL COST $6.86 //ASK PRICE EV $5.92 //BID PRICE EV $5.79 //ASK PROFIT $-0.94 (-13.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.07 (-15.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.3% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +78.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$17.37
+$10.51
+153.2%
$16.98
+$10.12
+147.5%
$0.39
2.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$9.44
+$2.58
+37.7%
$9.40
+$2.54
+37.0%
$0.04
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$4.76
-$2.10
-30.6%
$4.63
-$2.23
-32.5%
$0.13
2.7%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.94
-$3.92
-57.1%
$2.88
-$3.98
-58.0%
$0.06
2.1%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.42
-$4.44
-64.8%
$2.36
-$4.50
-65.6%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.23
-$4.63
-67.4%
$2.04
-$4.82
-70.3%
$0.19
8.7%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.22
-$4.64
-67.6%
$2.16
-$4.70
-68.5%
$0.06
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.057967199999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:22.386859Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:55.884359Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.03492,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2235,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:10.626148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 2.9405,
"optimistic_value": 2.93,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:21.240736Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 9.4435,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:23.051966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 4.7604999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.68,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 4.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:11.729234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_876d3e2cfeafbf7c44993e19",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "521997988014649590",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:03.898777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "512990789044279607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:03.898777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-430436880a99",
"listing_id": "502857637416237448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-430436880a99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:07:01.105751Z"
},
{
"price": 1.76,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "515241791634456709",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:01.378512Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605889840729975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.700412Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-09caec0af065",
"listing_id": "500605889841484031",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Bulkhead (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Bulkhead",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-09caec0af065.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:37.793262Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "491597893797538058",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:25.700412Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "498354037510400899",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:05.059518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:05.059518Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:05.059518Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.48 Exchanger 15.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.22 Damascus Steel 13.3% $0.72 VariCamo 13.3% $0.70 | $2.48 +83.7% | $1.68 +24.7% | 60.0% | +53.4% | $1.35 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 17.5% $2.48 Exchanger 17.5% $2.42 Facility Negative 17.5% $2.22 Co-Processor 17.5% $2.21 Damascus Steel 10.0% $0.72 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $2.48 +77.2% | $1.84 +31.6% | 70.0% | +47.1% | $1.40 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.44 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.22 Damascus Steel 16.7% $0.72 VariCamo 16.7% $0.70 | $2.44 +92.4% | $1.52 +19.6% | 50.0% | +58.8% | $1.27 | — |