The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Orange Peel
2x $0.07
Snake Camo
1x $0.08
VariCamo
1x $0.11
Mainframe
4x $0.06
Cold Fusion
2x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
15.0% $2.48
VariCamo
13.3% $0.70
Facility Negative
15.0% $0.48
Co-Processor
15.0% $0.41
Exchanger
15.0% $0.39
Brass
13.3% $0.25
Max Win
$2.48 (+172.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.72 (-20.5%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+82.5%
Cost
$0.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $0.91
Ask Price EV $0.72 (-20.5%)
Bid Price EV $0.69 (-24.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.19 (-20.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.22 (-24.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+3.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $2.48 (+172.6%)
Worst Case $0.24 (-73.6%)
Volatility +82.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 71.7%
Avg Win +$1.57
Avg Loss -$0.50
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.24 (-73.6%)
Std Dev $0.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1763
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 32h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Snake Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 59S //TOTAL COST $0.91 //ASK PRICE EV $0.72 //BID PRICE EV $0.69 //ASK PROFIT $-0.19 (-20.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.22 (-24.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $2.48 //VOLATILITY +82.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$2.48
+$1.57
+172.6%
$2.47
+$1.56
+171.4%
$0.01
0.4%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$0.70
-$0.21
-23.4%
$0.64
-$0.27
-29.7%
$0.06
8.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.48
-$0.43
-46.9%
$0.38
-$0.53
-58.2%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.41
-$0.50
-54.6%
$0.39
-$0.52
-57.1%
$0.02
5.7%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$0.39
-$0.52
-57.1%
$0.38
-$0.53
-58.2%
$0.01
2.6%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.25
-$0.66
-72.5%
$0.24
-$0.67
-73.6%
$0.01
4.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.24
-$0.67
-73.6%
$0.21
-$0.70
-76.9%
$0.03
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1463456,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.4805,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:23:13.880438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:53:43.826634Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.39,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.857524Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.08816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:55.667650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.105792,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 0.697,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T19:00:48.772116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.17632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 0.25,
"optimistic_value": 0.25,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 0.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:43.058546Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.17632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 0.24,
"optimistic_value": 0.24,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 0.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:21.300898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_876d3e2cfeafbf7c44993e19",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "500605889841342623",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:15.257037Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-bacf6f1cd605",
"listing_id": "507361123688378581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Snake Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bacf6f1cd605.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:32.760607Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "669488905375931055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:15.257037Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-f0efb98b360e",
"listing_id": "515242588553440297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0efb98b360e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:12:02.758686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "492724590626410281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:09.926022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "806843527059547665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "497227393161145157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-nuke-2:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.48 Exchanger 15.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.23 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.22 Damascus Steel 13.3% $0.72 VariCamo 13.3% $0.70 | $2.48 +83.7% | $1.68 +24.7% | 60.0% | +53.4% | $1.35 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 17.5% $2.48 Exchanger 17.5% $2.42 Facility Negative 17.5% $2.22 Co-Processor 17.5% $2.21 Damascus Steel 10.0% $0.72 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $2.48 +77.2% | $1.84 +31.6% | 70.0% | +47.1% | $1.40 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.44 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.22 Damascus Steel 16.7% $0.72 VariCamo 16.7% $0.70 | $2.44 +92.4% | $1.52 +19.6% | 50.0% | +58.8% | $1.27 | — |