The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Caged
1x $0.15
Trigger Discipline
1x $0.19
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
3x $0.27
Blush Pour
3x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $4.87
Glitched Paint
26.7% $3.00
Liquidation
4.0% $2.49
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $2.16
Cat Fight
4.0% $0.96
Continuum
4.0% $0.93
Max Win
$4.87 (+65.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.92 (-0.8%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+46.1%
Cost
$2.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.94
Ask Price EV $2.92 (-0.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.63 (-10.6%)
Ask Profit $-0.02 (-0.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.31 (-10.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+9.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $4.87 (+65.6%)
Worst Case $0.82 (-72.1%)
Volatility +46.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.7%
Avg Win +$0.99
Avg Loss -$1.19
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.85 (-71.2%)
Std Dev $1.36
Avg Norm Float 0.4460
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 155h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Trigger Discipline
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 02M 11S //TOTAL COST $2.94 //ASK PRICE EV $2.92 //BID PRICE EV $2.63 //ASK PROFIT $-0.02 (-0.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.31 (-10.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $4.87 //VOLATILITY +46.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$4.87
+$1.93
+65.6%
$4.33
+$1.39
+47.3%
$0.54
11.1%
—
PAPER WIN
26.7%
$3.00
+$0.06
+2.0%
$2.80
-$0.14
-4.8%
$0.20
6.7%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.49
-$0.45
-15.2%
$2.20
-$0.74
-25.2%
$0.29
11.8%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$2.16
-$0.78
-26.6%
$1.90
-$1.04
-35.4%
$0.26
11.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.96
-$1.98
-67.2%
$0.82
-$2.12
-72.1%
$0.14
14.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.93
-$2.01
-68.4%
$0.82
-$2.12
-72.1%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.85
-$2.09
-71.2%
$0.83
-$2.11
-71.8%
$0.02
2.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.82
-$2.12
-72.1%
$0.81
-$2.13
-72.4%
$0.01
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.334485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 4.8685,
"optimistic_value": 4.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.791136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.29880660000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 3,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:21.523197Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.267588,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1575,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:37.423783Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44598,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.847,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:12.259721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44598,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 2.4935,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44598,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.964,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44598,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.82,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:41.927808Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44598,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_852b2aa57620fb8c3db0e235",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "499480042828950121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:28.232467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-ab9a15ef8110",
"listing_id": "509613142168952463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Trigger Discipline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab9a15ef8110.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:44.642536Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235442368616092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:42.216720Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "527627540537868440",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.139456Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "499480042827727417",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.139456Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "490472843633744067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "506235442368498516",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "511864941882372873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:42.840524Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "518620341243851032",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:11:07.607433Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "491598743581017674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:14:19.386177Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.45 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.09 Ocular 4.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +154.1% | $7.74 +26.8% | 53.3% | +76.5% | $6.10 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 26.7% $32.23 Glitched Paint 26.7% $16.71 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $15.06 Liquidation 4.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 4.0% $2.25 Angel Eyes 4.0% $2.11 | $32.23 +99.9% | $17.71 +9.9% | 53.3% | +56.1% | $16.12 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.50 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.42 Liquidation 10.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 10.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 10.0% $1.07 | $15.50 +278.0% | $5.41 +32.1% | 50.0% | +112.2% | $4.10 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.41 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.09 Ocular 8.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +231.1% | $6.16 +31.7% | 60.0% | +100.5% | $4.68 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.41 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.09 Ocular 12.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +334.1% | $4.65 +30.3% | 52.0% | +123.4% | $3.57 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.50 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.45 Liquidation 6.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 6.0% $1.09 Ocular 6.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +187.5% | $6.97 +29.4% | 70.0% | +87.5% | $5.39 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.63 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.41 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.09 Ocular 14.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +395.1% | $3.90 +24.6% | 44.0% | +130.5% | $3.13 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.50 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.42 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.09 Angel Eyes 2.0% $1.04 | $15.50 +121.4% | $8.43 +20.4% | 30.0% | +65.8% | $7.00 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.50 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $6.50 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.26 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.11 | $15.50 +330.5% | $3.82 +6.0% | 28.0% | +81.0% | $3.60 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Ice Coaled  30.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  30.0% $10.53 Mirror Mosaic  30.0% $8.68 | $21.36 +106.8% | $11.45 +10.9% | 70.0% | +34.1% | $10.33 | — |