The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ancient Ritual
1x $9.54
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
Sour Grapes
2x $0.30
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.37
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.43
Rose Nacre
1x $0.57
↓
Possible Outputs
Dusk Ruins
2.5% $214.37
Carved Jade
2.5% $189.68
Dark Water
2.5% $152.30
Blast From the Past
2.5% $22.38
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.12
Royal Baroque
18.0% $2.64
Max Win
$214.37 (+1581.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.41 (+28.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+382.3%
Cost
$12.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.75
Ask Price EV $16.41 (+28.7%)
Bid Price EV $12.93 (+1.4%)
Ask Profit $3.66 (+28.7%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+1.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.47 (+27.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $214.37 (+1581.3%)
Worst Case $1.17 (-90.8%)
Volatility +382.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$131.93
Avg Loss -$10.60
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.17 (-90.8%)
Std Dev $48.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1166
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 153h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual
—
Field-Tested
$9.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 50S //TOTAL COST $12.75 //ASK PRICE EV $16.41 //BID PRICE EV $12.93 //ASK PROFIT $3.66 (+28.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+1.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $214.37 //VOLATILITY +382.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
2.5%
$214.37
+$201.62
+1581.3%
$151.36
+$138.61
+1087.1%
$63.01
29.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$189.68
+$176.93
+1387.7%
$172.93
+$160.18
+1256.3%
$16.75
8.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$152.30
+$139.55
+1094.5%
$97.72
+$84.97
+666.4%
$54.58
35.8%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$22.38
+$9.63
+75.5%
$20.85
+$8.10
+63.5%
$1.52
6.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$3.12
-$9.63
-75.5%
$3.05
-$9.70
-76.1%
$0.07
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.64
-$10.11
-79.3%
$2.62
-$10.13
-79.5%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$2.01
-$10.74
-84.2%
$1.99
-$10.76
-84.4%
$0.02
1.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.82
-$10.93
-85.7%
$1.64
-$11.11
-87.1%
$0.18
10.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.17
-$11.58
-90.8%
$1.04
-$11.71
-91.8%
$0.13
11.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:41.039096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08158499999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8215,
"optimistic_value": 1.79,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:42.442223Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.0757575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1704999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:42:58.066954Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.574463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.02331,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07b30f648b35",
"realistic_value": 189.684,
"optimistic_value": 184,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Carved Jade",
"conservative_value": 172.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:56.332256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07b30f648b35.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.118648,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d48a6eb741e",
"realistic_value": 152.2985,
"optimistic_value": 147.92,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water",
"conservative_value": 97.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.171045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d48a6eb741e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.06992999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4f5a5aa33496",
"realistic_value": 214.367,
"optimistic_value": 184.26,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins",
"conservative_value": 151.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:55:20.819582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4f5a5aa33496.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0757575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41f176a064d2",
"realistic_value": 22.375,
"optimistic_value": 21.85,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past",
"conservative_value": 20.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:41.414778Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41f176a064d2.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_81742fbd8c0a4999e2e1e9ca",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 9.54,
"skin_id": "skin-c9fe23913c83",
"listing_id": "505109542380043964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Field-Tested)",
"name": "G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c9fe23913c83.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:39.083065Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:35.218174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:14:35.218174Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "502857689861463832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:49.859270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:49.859270Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "524249840859436131",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "506235442367748672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:30.942331Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "529879340432181216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:12.718385Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-ancient:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Carved Jade 2.5% $189.68 Dark Water 2.5% $152.30 Dusk Ruins 2.5% $36.57 Blast From the Past 2.5% $22.38 Yeti Camo 18.0% $1.82 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $1.17 | $189.68 +1789.3% | $11.13 +10.9% | 10.0% | +365.7% | $10.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 5.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 5.0% $189.68 Dark Water 5.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 5.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +744.0% | $32.26 +27.0% | 20.0% | +246.2% | $25.40 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 7.5% $214.37 Carved Jade 7.5% $189.68 Dark Water 7.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past 7.5% $49.91 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +472.3% | $47.18 +25.9% | 30.0% | +188.7% | $37.46 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 10.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 10.0% $189.68 Dark Water 10.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 10.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 12.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +328.0% | $62.08 +23.9% | 30.0% | +149.6% | $50.09 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass  7.5% $53.94 Panther Camo  7.5% $44.86 Ancient Ritual 7.5% $43.31 Silver  7.5% $39.63 Ocean Topo  7.8% $0.84 Electric Blue 7.8% $0.79 | $53.94 +393.5% | $14.01 +28.2% | 30.0% | +166.6% | $10.93 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Ancient Visions  3.3% $340.84 Gold Brick  3.3% $249.02 Ancient Lore  3.3% $154.93 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.38 | $340.84 +720.7% | $48.36 +16.4% | 10.0% | +173.0% | $41.53 | — |