The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Tall Grass
1x $11.75
Electric Blue
1x $0.25
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
2x $0.38
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.43
Ocean Topo
3x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Dusk Ruins
2.5% $214.37
Carved Jade
2.5% $189.68
Dark Water
2.5% $152.30
Blast From the Past
2.5% $49.91
Yeti Camo
18.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.12
Max Win
$214.37 (+1055.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.84 (-3.9%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+262.9%
Cost
$18.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.56
Ask Price EV $17.84 (-3.9%)
Bid Price EV $14.31 (-22.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.72 (-3.9%)
Bid Profit $-4.25 (-22.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.54 (+19.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.72
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.25
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $214.37 (+1055.0%)
Worst Case $2.05 (-88.9%)
Volatility +262.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$133.01
Avg Loss -$15.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.05 (-88.9%)
Std Dev $48.79
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 154h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Tall Grass
—
Minimal Wear
$11.75 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 08S //TOTAL COST $18.56 //ASK PRICE EV $17.84 //BID PRICE EV $14.31 //ASK PROFIT $-0.72 (-3.9%) //BID PROFIT $-4.25 (-22.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $214.37 //VOLATILITY +262.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$214.37
+$195.81
+1055.0%
$151.36
+$132.80
+715.5%
$63.01
29.4%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$189.68
+$171.12
+922.0%
$172.93
+$154.37
+831.7%
$16.75
8.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$152.30
+$133.74
+720.6%
$97.72
+$79.16
+426.5%
$54.58
35.8%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$49.91
+$31.35
+168.9%
$44.07
+$25.51
+137.4%
$5.84
11.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.46
-$14.10
-76.0%
$4.43
-$14.13
-76.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.12
-$15.44
-83.2%
$3.05
-$15.51
-83.6%
$0.07
2.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.65
-$15.91
-85.7%
$2.64
-$15.92
-85.8%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.64
-$15.92
-85.8%
$2.62
-$15.94
-85.9%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.05
-$16.51
-88.9%
$2.00
-$16.56
-89.2%
$0.05
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:29.289761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.048873999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.045383,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:14.795371Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:15.577512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:16.750970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.013963999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07b30f648b35",
"realistic_value": 189.684,
"optimistic_value": 184,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Carved Jade",
"conservative_value": 172.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:56.332256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07b30f648b35.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.1111712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d48a6eb741e",
"realistic_value": 152.2985,
"optimistic_value": 147.92,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water",
"conservative_value": 97.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.171045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d48a6eb741e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4f5a5aa33496",
"realistic_value": 214.367,
"optimistic_value": 184.26,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins",
"conservative_value": 151.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:55:20.819582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4f5a5aa33496.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.045383,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41f176a064d2",
"realistic_value": 49.9135,
"optimistic_value": 49.35,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past",
"conservative_value": 44.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:18.879140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41f176a064d2.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_81742fbd8c0a4999e2e1e9ca",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 11.75,
"skin_id": "skin-bb21a91fe207",
"listing_id": "518620341243654796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Tall Grass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bb21a91fe207.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:18:09.197667Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:54.734161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:58.393404Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:11.939049Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "506235442367748672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:27.930394Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:27.930394Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:34.814590Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "528753221919408945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:34.814590Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "491598690698619998",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:34.814590Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-ancient:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 2.5% $214.37 Carved Jade 2.5% $189.68 Dark Water 2.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past 2.5% $22.38 Mint Fan 18.0% $3.12 Royal Baroque 18.0% $2.64 | $214.37 +1569.5% | $16.42 +27.9% | 10.0% | +370.1% | $12.84 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Carved Jade 2.5% $189.68 Dark Water 2.5% $152.30 Dusk Ruins 2.5% $36.57 Blast From the Past 2.5% $22.38 Yeti Camo 18.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 18.0% $1.17 | $189.68 +1785.5% | $11.13 +10.6% | 10.0% | +365.0% | $10.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 5.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 5.0% $189.68 Dark Water 5.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 5.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.13 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +743.0% | $32.27 +26.9% | 20.0% | +245.9% | $25.43 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 7.5% $214.37 Carved Jade 7.5% $189.68 Dark Water 7.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past 7.5% $49.91 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +470.6% | $47.19 +25.6% | 30.0% | +188.2% | $37.57 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 10.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 10.0% $189.68 Dark Water 10.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 10.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 12.0% $3.13 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +325.8% | $62.10 +23.3% | 30.0% | +148.8% | $50.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 5.0% $53.94 Panther Camo  5.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual  5.0% $43.31 Silver  5.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo 8.9% $0.87 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $53.94 +616.3% | $9.52 +26.4% | 20.0% | +221.0% | $7.53 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Ancient Visions  3.3% $340.84 Gold Brick  3.3% $249.02 Ancient Lore  3.3% $154.93 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.27 | $340.84 +716.4% | $48.31 +15.7% | 10.0% | +172.2% | $41.75 | — |