The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Tall Grass
1x $8.77
Rose Nacre
2x $0.07
Sour Grapes
2x $0.10
Robin's Egg
2x $0.12
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.14
Electric Blue
2x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Carved Jade
2.5% $189.68
Dark Water
2.5% $152.30
Dusk Ruins
2.5% $36.57
Blast From the Past
2.5% $22.38
Yeti Camo
18.0% $1.83
Cobalt Paisley
18.0% $1.17
Max Win
$189.68 (+1785.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.13 (+10.6%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+372.3%
Cost
$10.06
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $10.06
Ask Price EV $11.13 (+10.6%)
Bid Price EV $9.04 (-10.2%)
Ask Profit $1.07 (+10.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.02 (-10.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.09 (+20.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.02
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $189.68 (+1785.5%)
Worst Case $0.99 (-90.1%)
Volatility +372.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$90.17
Avg Loss -$8.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.99 (-90.1%)
Std Dev $37.46
Avg Norm Float 0.2123
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 153h 36m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Tall Grass
—
Battle-Scarred
$8.77 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 16S //TOTAL COST $10.06 //ASK PRICE EV $11.13 //BID PRICE EV $9.04 //ASK PROFIT $1.07 (+10.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.02 (-10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $189.68 //VOLATILITY +372.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$189.68
+$179.62
+1785.5%
$172.93
+$162.87
+1619.0%
$16.75
8.8%
—
BIG WIN THIN BID
2.5%
$152.30
+$142.24
+1413.9%
$97.72
+$87.66
+871.4%
$54.58
35.8%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$36.57
+$26.51
+263.5%
$29.91
+$19.85
+197.3%
$6.66
18.2%
—
BIG WIN
2.5%
$22.38
+$12.32
+122.4%
$20.85
+$10.79
+107.3%
$1.52
6.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.83
-$8.23
-81.8%
$1.61
-$8.45
-84.0%
$0.22
12.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.17
-$8.89
-88.4%
$1.04
-$9.02
-89.7%
$0.13
11.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.09
-$8.97
-89.2%
$0.96
-$9.10
-90.5%
$0.13
11.5%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.05
-$9.01
-89.5%
$1.01
-$9.05
-90.0%
$0.04
4.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.99
-$9.07
-90.1%
$0.94
-$9.12
-90.7%
$0.05
5.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.127356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 0.992,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:25.764869Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.148582,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8345,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:58.765040Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.137969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1704999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:51.133271Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.127356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.0535,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.127356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.085,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:26.746703Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.042452000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-07b30f648b35",
"realistic_value": 189.684,
"optimistic_value": 184,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Carved Jade",
"conservative_value": 172.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:56.332256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07b30f648b35.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.13396160000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d48a6eb741e",
"realistic_value": 152.2985,
"optimistic_value": 147.92,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water",
"conservative_value": 97.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.171045Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d48a6eb741e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.127356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4f5a5aa33496",
"realistic_value": 36.567,
"optimistic_value": 36,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins",
"conservative_value": 29.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Dusk Ruins (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:47:47.732454Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4f5a5aa33496.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.137969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41f176a064d2",
"realistic_value": 22.375,
"optimistic_value": 21.85,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past",
"conservative_value": 20.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ancient Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Blast From the Past (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:05:41.414778Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41f176a064d2.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_81742fbd8c0a4999e2e1e9ca",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 8.77,
"skin_id": "skin-bb21a91fe207",
"listing_id": "519746022669223988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-op10-ancient",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Tall Grass (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Tall Grass",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bb21a91fe207.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:14.773247Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "510739041954741334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:30.019127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "497228243054872145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:49.371042Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "505109323868002268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:49.371042Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "501731842661881121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:00.212682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542380388916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:11.238062Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:00.212682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "498354142900313815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:17.977632Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:54.734161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:54.734161Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-op10-ancient:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 2.5% $214.37 Carved Jade 2.5% $189.68 Dark Water 2.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past 2.5% $22.38 Mint Fan 18.0% $3.12 Royal Baroque 18.0% $2.64 | $214.37 +1569.5% | $16.42 +27.9% | 10.0% | +370.1% | $12.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 5.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 5.0% $189.68 Dark Water 5.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 5.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.13 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +743.0% | $32.27 +26.9% | 20.0% | +245.9% | $25.43 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 7.5% $214.37 Carved Jade 7.5% $189.68 Dark Water 7.5% $152.30 Blast From the Past 7.5% $49.91 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.12 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +470.6% | $47.19 +25.6% | 30.0% | +188.2% | $37.57 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Dusk Ruins 10.0% $214.37 Carved Jade 10.0% $189.68 Dark Water 10.0% $152.30 Blast From the Past 10.0% $49.91 Mint Fan 12.0% $3.13 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $2.65 | $214.37 +325.8% | $62.10 +23.3% | 30.0% | +148.8% | $50.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ancient Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Tall Grass 5.0% $53.94 Panther Camo  5.0% $44.86 Ancient Ritual  5.0% $43.31 Silver  5.0% $39.63 Ocean Topo  8.9% $0.87 Electric Blue 8.9% $0.79 | $53.94 +616.3% | $9.52 +26.4% | 20.0% | +221.0% | $7.53 | — |
The Ancient Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Ancient Visions  3.3% $340.84 Gold Brick  3.3% $249.02 Ancient Lore  3.3% $154.93 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.27 | $340.84 +716.4% | $48.31 +15.7% | 10.0% | +172.2% | $41.75 | — |