The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Red Wing
1x $0.14
Caged
2x $0.15
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
3x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.92
Liquidation
6.0% $2.49
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.14
Cat Fight
6.0% $0.96
Continuum
6.0% $0.93
Max Win
$5.01 (+75.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (-5.2%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+50.8%
Cost
$2.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.86
Ask Price EV $2.71 (-5.2%)
Bid Price EV $2.51 (-12.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.15 (-5.2%)
Bid Profit $-0.35 (-12.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.15
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.35
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+75.1%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-70.9%)
Volatility +50.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 47.3%
Avg Win +$1.10
Avg Loss -$1.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-70.9%)
Std Dev $1.45
Avg Norm Float 0.4476
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 144h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 38S //TOTAL COST $2.86 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.51 //ASK PROFIT $-0.15 (-5.2%) //BID PROFIT $-0.35 (-12.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +50.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$2.15
+75.1%
$4.66
+$1.80
+62.9%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN
23.3%
$2.92
+$0.06
+2.0%
$2.76
-$0.10
-3.5%
$0.16
5.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.49
-$0.37
-12.8%
$2.20
-$0.66
-23.1%
$0.29
11.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.14
-$0.72
-25.1%
$1.91
-$0.95
-33.2%
$0.23
10.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.96
-$1.90
-66.3%
$0.82
-$2.04
-71.3%
$0.14
14.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.93
-$1.93
-67.5%
$0.82
-$2.04
-71.3%
$0.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.84
-$2.02
-70.5%
$0.83
-$2.03
-71.0%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.83
-$2.03
-70.9%
$0.81
-$2.05
-71.7%
$0.02
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3356925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2998853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9175,
"optimistic_value": 2.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:07.499062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.26855399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:12.626131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.8434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.065840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 2.4935,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 2.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:16.804583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.964,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:51:56.092922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.8334999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.868471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.44759,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:07.840943Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_80727f1a3b62f393bc4468ff",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519746188257532268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:46:11.874479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "520872088106042304",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:44.129758Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "518620235869812748",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:56.476616Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:05.078713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +126.1% | $16.72 +13.2% | 70.0% | +66.0% | $14.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +236.3% | $6.38 +34.6% | 60.0% | +101.7% | $4.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Continuum 2.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.84 +30.0% | 60.0% | +68.2% | $6.80 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +160.5% | $7.92 +29.3% | 53.3% | +78.4% | $6.12 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +325.1% | $4.81 +28.2% | 52.0% | +120.8% | $3.75 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +368.9% | $4.01 +17.9% | 44.0% | +123.4% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.91 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +328.5% | $3.87 +4.0% | 28.0% | +80.3% | $3.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Ice Coaled  30.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  30.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  30.0% $9.64 | $21.36 +110.4% | $11.68 +15.0% | 70.0% | +33.0% | $10.15 | — |