The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Red Wing
2x $0.13
Caged
1x $0.15
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
3x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $5.01
Glitched Paint
23.3% $2.92
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $2.14
Liquidation
6.0% $1.36
Cat Fight
6.0% $0.80
Angel Eyes
6.0% $0.74
Max Win
$5.01 (+79.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.61 (-6.5%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+54.8%
Cost
$2.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.79
Ask Price EV $2.61 (-6.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.40 (-14.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.18 (-6.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.39 (-14.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+7.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.39
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+79.4%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-74.8%)
Volatility +54.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.17
Avg Loss -$1.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-74.8%)
Std Dev $1.53
Avg Norm Float 0.4804
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 144h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 07S //TOTAL COST $2.79 //ASK PRICE EV $2.61 //BID PRICE EV $2.40 //ASK PROFIT $-0.18 (-6.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.39 (-14.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +54.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$5.01
+$2.22
+79.4%
$4.66
+$1.87
+67.0%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN
23.3%
$2.92
+$0.13
+4.6%
$2.76
-$0.03
-1.1%
$0.16
5.4%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$2.14
-$0.65
-23.2%
$1.91
-$0.88
-31.5%
$0.23
10.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.36
-$1.43
-51.2%
$1.17
-$1.62
-58.1%
$0.19
14.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.80
-$1.99
-71.2%
$0.66
-$2.13
-76.3%
$0.14
17.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$2.05
-73.5%
$0.63
-$2.16
-77.4%
$0.11
14.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$2.05
-73.5%
$0.62
-$2.17
-77.8%
$0.12
16.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.09
-74.8%
$0.64
-$2.15
-77.1%
$0.06
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.36033,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3218948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9175,
"optimistic_value": 2.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:07.499062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.28826399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:12.626131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T20:59:55.865803Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 1.3605,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:14.514541Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T16:04:54.060260Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 0.74,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:44.152264Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.48044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:15.997268Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_80727f1a3b62f393bc4468ff",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "500605889841671339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:46:11.874479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "519746188257532268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:46:11.874479Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "520872088106042304",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:44.129758Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:48:05.078713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +126.1% | $16.72 +13.2% | 70.0% | +66.0% | $14.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +236.3% | $6.38 +34.6% | 60.0% | +101.7% | $4.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Continuum 2.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.84 +30.0% | 60.0% | +68.2% | $6.80 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +160.5% | $7.92 +29.3% | 53.3% | +78.4% | $6.12 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +325.1% | $4.81 +28.2% | 52.0% | +120.8% | $3.75 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +368.9% | $4.01 +17.9% | 44.0% | +123.4% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.91 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +328.5% | $3.87 +4.0% | 28.0% | +80.3% | $3.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Ice Coaled  30.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  30.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  30.0% $9.64 | $21.36 +110.4% | $11.68 +15.0% | 70.0% | +33.0% | $10.15 | — |