The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Broken Record
1x $1.38
Red Wing
2x $1.39
Blush Pour
3x $1.53
Shredded
3x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Liquidation
6.0% $19.42
Glitched Paint
23.3% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Cat Fight
6.0% $6.50
Angel Eyes
6.0% $6.27
Max Win
$33.42 (+54.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.42 (-15.0%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+43.5%
Cost
$21.66
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.66
Ask Price EV $18.42 (-15.0%)
Bid Price EV $17.53 (-19.0%)
Ask Profit $-3.24 (-15.0%)
Bid Profit $-4.13 (-19.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.89 (+4.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.24
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.13
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+54.3%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-71.9%)
Volatility +43.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$11.76
Avg Loss -$7.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-71.9%)
Std Dev $9.43
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 145h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 18S //TOTAL COST $21.66 //ASK PRICE EV $18.42 //BID PRICE EV $17.53 //ASK PROFIT $-3.24 (-15.0%) //BID PROFIT $-4.13 (-19.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +43.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$33.42
+$11.76
+54.3%
$31.48
+$9.82
+45.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$19.42
-$2.24
-10.4%
$16.07
-$5.59
-25.8%
$3.35
17.2%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$17.13
-$4.53
-20.9%
$16.69
-$4.97
-22.9%
$0.44
2.6%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$4.68
-21.6%
$16.48
-$5.18
-23.9%
$0.50
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.50
-$15.16
-70.0%
$6.35
-$15.31
-70.7%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.27
-$15.39
-71.1%
$6.21
-$15.45
-71.3%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.14
-$15.52
-71.7%
$6.12
-$15.54
-71.7%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$6.09
-$15.57
-71.9%
$6.07
-$15.59
-72.0%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:00.692920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:22.589413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:52:52.147738Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:47.383085Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:57.088087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_80727f1a3b62f393bc4468ff",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "511864836540599481",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:39.559662Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "507361289453364277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:44.160576Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "498354089953558939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:44.160576Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:07.160564Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737593455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:06.932821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:40.863466Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:41.338721Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Glitched Paint 23.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Liquidation 6.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 6.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 6.0% $2.14 | $33.42 +126.1% | $16.72 +13.2% | 70.0% | +66.0% | $14.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Liquidation 8.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 8.0% $1.13 Continuum 8.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +236.3% | $6.38 +34.6% | 60.0% | +101.7% | $4.74 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Liquidation 2.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 2.0% $1.13 Continuum 2.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +134.4% | $8.84 +30.0% | 60.0% | +68.2% | $6.80 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Liquidation 4.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 4.0% $1.13 Continuum 4.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +160.5% | $7.92 +29.3% | 53.3% | +78.4% | $6.12 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Liquidation 12.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 12.0% $1.13 Continuum 12.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +325.1% | $4.81 +28.2% | 52.0% | +120.8% | $3.75 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 Continuum 14.0% $1.09 | $15.94 +368.9% | $4.01 +17.9% | 44.0% | +123.4% | $3.40 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Liquidation 18.0% $7.67 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.91 Cat Fight 18.0% $2.28 Angel Eyes 18.0% $2.14 | $15.94 +328.5% | $3.87 +4.0% | 28.0% | +80.3% | $3.72 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Ice Coaled  30.0% $11.85 Smoking Kills  30.0% $10.31 Mirror Mosaic  30.0% $9.64 | $21.36 +110.4% | $11.68 +15.0% | 70.0% | +33.0% | $10.15 | — |