The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Wall Bang
1x $0.06
Midnight Paintover
2x $0.09
Wash me plz
1x $0.13
Basket Halftone
2x $0.10
Grey Ghost
3x $0.12
Steel Work
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.26
Teal Graf
10.0% $2.15
Rose Hex
10.0% $1.78
Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.23
Pipsqueak
10.0% $1.22
Wurst Hölle
10.0% $1.13
Max Win
$2.26 (+99.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.33 (+18.1%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+45.3%
Cost
$1.13
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.13
Ask Price EV $1.33 (+18.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.26 (+11.2%)
Ask Profit $0.20 (+18.1%)
Bid Profit $0.13 (+11.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.20
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $2.26 (+99.7%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-33.6%)
Volatility +45.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.50
Avg Loss -$0.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-33.6%)
Std Dev $0.51
Avg Norm Float 0.1380
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 27h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 20S //TOTAL COST $1.13 //ASK PRICE EV $1.33 //BID PRICE EV $1.26 //ASK PROFIT $0.20 (+18.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+11.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $2.26 //VOLATILITY +45.3% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.26
+$1.13
+99.7%
$2.09
+$0.96
+85.0%
$0.17
7.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.15
+$1.02
+90.6%
$2.13
+$1.00
+88.5%
$0.02
1.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.78
+$0.65
+57.8%
$1.70
+$0.57
+50.4%
$0.08
4.7%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.23
+$0.10
+8.6%
$1.16
+$0.03
+2.7%
$0.07
5.5%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.22
+$0.09
+7.7%
$1.12
-$0.01
-0.9%
$0.10
8.0%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.13
+$0.00
+0.4%
$1.07
-$0.06
-5.3%
$0.06
5.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.05
-$0.08
-7.1%
$1.00
-$0.13
-11.5%
$0.05
4.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.93
-$0.20
-17.7%
$0.82
-$0.31
-27.4%
$0.11
11.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.84
-$0.29
-25.9%
$0.74
-$0.39
-34.5%
$0.10
11.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.75
-$0.38
-33.6%
$0.74
-$0.39
-34.5%
$0.01
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08280599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.154,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:44.471714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.124209,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:42:04.443708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.13801,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.1340000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:55.605705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06927563761,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.257,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:29:09.292826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10391338740999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.2269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.22,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:50.755686Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:02.810177Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08280599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.837,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.556717Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1035075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:54.962457Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09363026230999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.9305,
"optimistic_value": 0.92,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:34.494812Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7c972c9c1def369e57d37eb4",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "503983642533476827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:55.422566Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "496102343225941823",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:35:36.512227Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "526501422105979913",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:35:36.512227Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "528753440605397061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:14.668756Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "524249840859469287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:37:30.447386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176009775",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:37:30.447386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506235442367968452",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:12.501083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "644719716499093227",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:12.501083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "509613089305540863",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:12.501083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:22:55.853511Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.23 Red Tide 10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $0.98 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.93 Shredded 10.0% $0.84 Rose Hex 10.0% $0.77 | $1.23 +53.4% | $0.81 +1.5% | 50.0% | +20.7% | $0.80 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.19 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.15 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.78 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.13 | $2.19 +94.0% | $1.32 +17.0% | 62.5% | +36.9% | $1.13 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.26 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.78 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.23 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.26 +92.9% | $1.33 +13.6% | 50.0% | +36.4% | $1.17 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.19 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.15 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.78 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.19 +85.8% | $1.33 +12.3% | 50.0% | +34.8% | $1.18 | — |