The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Wash me
2x $0.32
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.35
Wash me plz
1x $0.92
Basket Halftone
3x $0.29
Citric Acid
1x $0.32
Grey Ghost
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Pipsqueak
10.0% $6.82
Wurst Hölle
10.0% $5.10
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.76
Red Tide
10.0% $3.33
Blush Pour
10.0% $2.26
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.19
Max Win
$6.82 (+41.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.25 (-32.5%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+34.1%
Cost
$4.81
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.81
Ask Price EV $3.25 (-32.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.16 (-34.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.56 (-32.5%)
Bid Profit $-1.65 (-34.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.09 (+1.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.65
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $6.82 (+41.9%)
Worst Case $1.78 (-62.9%)
Volatility +34.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$1.15
Avg Loss -$2.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.78 (-62.9%)
Std Dev $1.64
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 154h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 22S //TOTAL COST $4.81 //ASK PRICE EV $3.25 //BID PRICE EV $3.16 //ASK PROFIT $-1.56 (-32.5%) //BID PROFIT $-1.65 (-34.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $6.82 //VOLATILITY +34.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
10.0%
$6.82
+$2.01
+41.9%
$6.71
+$1.90
+39.5%
$0.11
1.7%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$5.10
+$0.29
+6.0%
$4.90
+$0.09
+1.9%
$0.20
3.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.76
-$0.05
-1.0%
$4.73
-$0.08
-1.7%
$0.03
0.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.33
-$1.48
-30.8%
$3.31
-$1.50
-31.2%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.26
-$2.55
-53.0%
$2.09
-$2.72
-56.5%
$0.17
7.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.19
-$2.62
-54.4%
$2.08
-$2.73
-56.8%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.18
-$2.63
-54.7%
$2.15
-$2.66
-55.3%
$0.03
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.15
-$2.66
-55.2%
$2.13
-$2.68
-55.7%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.89
-$2.92
-60.7%
$1.78
-$3.03
-63.0%
$0.11
5.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.78
-$3.03
-62.9%
$1.70
-$3.11
-64.7%
$0.08
4.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041628,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 2.18,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 2.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:31:31.486517Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03469,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 2.154,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:53.343302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.062442,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 6.8235,
"optimistic_value": 6.82,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:07.257918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 5.1000000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.03,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 4.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:00.365094Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034826054179999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.192,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.983904Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05223904658,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.76,
"optimistic_value": 4.76,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:20.567926Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03469,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:57.922991Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041628,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8925,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:45.271873Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052035,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.33,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.847496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04706954278,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.263,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:33.616484Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7c972c9c1def369e57d37eb4",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "506235442368496320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:15:45.186064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "493850438105713000",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:42.599062Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "789960193659594614",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:15:45.186064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "502857637418221228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:32.139312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "493850543432181496",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:27.943071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "511864941882265845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:27.943071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "654852815703091315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:27.943071Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "529879340432803080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:32.951564Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:47.453022Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "501731842661951177",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:11.124892Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.19 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.78 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.23 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +95.7% | $1.33 +18.5% | 60.0% | +36.8% | $1.12 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.23 Red Tide 10.0% $1.05 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $0.98 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 Shredded 10.0% $0.82 Rose Hex 10.0% $0.77 | $1.23 +55.3% | $0.81 +2.7% | 50.0% | +21.1% | $0.79 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.20 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.79 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.23 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.20 +98.1% | $1.33 +20.0% | 57.5% | +36.9% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.20 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.16 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.79 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.23 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.13 | $2.20 +92.9% | $1.33 +16.4% | 50.0% | +36.6% | $1.14 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.19 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.78 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +92.3% | $1.32 +15.8% | 50.0% | +36.9% | $1.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  13.3% $15.50 Eye of Zapems  20.0% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels  20.0% $10.28 Monster Melt  20.0% $8.50 Glitched Paint  13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $5.45 | $15.50 +92.5% | $9.58 +19.0% | 73.3% | +36.2% | $8.05 | — |