The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Midnight Paintover
3x $0.06
Wall Bang
1x $0.06
Basket Halftone
2x $0.06
Grey Ghost
1x $0.06
Steel Work
1x $0.07
O-Ranger
1x $0.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.23
Red Tide
10.0% $1.05
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $0.98
Blush Pour
10.0% $0.95
Shredded
10.0% $0.82
Rose Hex
10.0% $0.77
Max Win
$1.23 (+55.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.81 (+2.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+30.0%
Cost
$0.79
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $0.79
Ask Price EV $0.81 (+2.7%)
Bid Price EV $0.76 (-4.1%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+2.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.03 (-4.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.05 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.03
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $1.23 (+55.3%)
Worst Case $0.41 (-47.7%)
Volatility +30.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.21
Avg Loss -$0.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.41 (-47.7%)
Std Dev $0.24
Avg Norm Float 0.1976
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 4h 9m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 43S //TOTAL COST $0.79 //ASK PRICE EV $0.81 //BID PRICE EV $0.76 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.03 (-4.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $1.23 //VOLATILITY +30.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$1.23
+$0.44
+55.3%
$1.16
+$0.37
+46.8%
$0.07
5.5%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.05
+$0.26
+32.9%
$1.00
+$0.21
+26.6%
$0.05
4.8%
—
WIN
10.0%
$0.98
+$0.19
+24.3%
$0.88
+$0.09
+11.4%
$0.10
10.4%
—
WIN
10.0%
$0.95
+$0.16
+19.9%
$0.82
+$0.03
+3.8%
$0.13
13.4%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$0.82
+$0.03
+3.5%
$0.74
-$0.05
-6.3%
$0.08
9.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.77
-$0.02
-2.9%
$0.70
-$0.09
-11.4%
$0.07
8.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.75
-$0.04
-5.1%
$0.74
-$0.05
-6.3%
$0.01
1.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.66
-$0.13
-16.5%
$0.65
-$0.14
-17.7%
$0.01
1.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.50
-$0.29
-36.7%
$0.48
-$0.31
-39.2%
$0.02
4.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.41
-$0.38
-47.7%
$0.41
-$0.38
-48.1%
$0.00
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11858999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.75,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:53.127742Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.098825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 0.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:10.937618Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.177885,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:12:50.769801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 0.5,
"optimistic_value": 0.5,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 0.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:15:08.691011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09921259165,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 0.982,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:36.969184Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14881878864999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.2269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.22,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:54.028204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.098825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.767,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:51.139238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11858999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8175,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:12.827339Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1482375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:53.555409Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.13409188715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.947,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:33.326714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7c972c9c1def369e57d37eb4",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "508487242222712702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:37:43.452490Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "503983642533476827",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:54.538770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "497228190140367113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:43.492997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "526501422105979913",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:26:43.492997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287551138868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:58.858514Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "517494441497828410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:04.109336Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:59.822662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "518619491401898812",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:29:00.307719Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "501731842662532937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:54.427834Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "507361342335006817",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:30.125432Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-overpass-2024:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.19 Teal Graf 10.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 10.0% $1.78 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.23 Pipsqueak 10.0% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 10.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +95.7% | $1.33 +18.5% | 60.0% | +36.8% | $1.12 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 11.7% $2.20 Teal Graf 7.5% $2.16 Rose Hex 11.7% $1.79 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.23 Pipsqueak 7.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 7.5% $1.13 | $2.20 +98.1% | $1.33 +20.0% | 57.5% | +36.9% | $1.11 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.20 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.16 Rose Hex 8.3% $1.79 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.23 Pipsqueak 12.5% $1.22 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $1.13 | $2.20 +92.9% | $1.33 +16.4% | 50.0% | +36.6% | $1.14 | — |
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Arsenic Spill 6.7% $2.19 Teal Graf 15.0% $2.15 Rose Hex 6.7% $1.78 Pipsqueak 15.0% $1.22 Coral Bloom 6.7% $1.21 Wurst Hölle 15.0% $1.13 | $2.19 +92.3% | $1.32 +15.8% | 50.0% | +36.9% | $1.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  13.3% $15.50 Eye of Zapems  20.0% $10.59 Sweet Little Angels  20.0% $10.28 Monster Melt  20.0% $8.50 Glitched Paint  13.3% $6.84 Bleeding Edge  13.3% $5.45 | $15.50 +92.5% | $9.58 +19.0% | 73.3% | +36.2% | $8.05 | — |