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The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Battle-Scarred -21.3%Factory New -23.2%Field-Tested +20.8%Minimal Wear +9.2%Well-Worn -25.3%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
1x $0.48
Copperflage
XM1014 | Copperflage
2x $0.14
Poplar Thicket
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
3x $0.14
Gold Leaf
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
4x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $7.39
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.33
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $1.54
Max Win
$7.39 (+183.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.95 (-25.3%)
Win %
5.0%
Volatility
+48.3%
Cost
$2.61
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.61
Ask Price EV $1.95 (-25.3%)
Bid Price EV $1.80 (-30.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.66 (-25.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.81 (-30.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.15 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.66
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 5.0%
Loss Probability 95.0%
Best Case $7.39 (+183.3%)
Worst Case $1.54 (-41.0%)
Volatility +48.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$4.78
Avg Loss -$0.95
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-41.0%)
Std Dev $1.26
Avg Norm Float 0.4427
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 57h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Battle-Scarred
XM1014 | Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 42S //TOTAL COST $2.61 //ASK PRICE EV $1.95 //BID PRICE EV $1.80 //ASK PROFIT $-0.66 (-25.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.81 (-30.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 5.0% //BEST CASE $7.39 //VOLATILITY +48.3% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.2965956,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 1.5405,
      "optimistic_value": 1.53,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 1.45,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:33.533690Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.33201,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 1.714,
      "optimistic_value": 1.7,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 1.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.05,
      "output_float": 0.309876,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3935,
      "optimistic_value": 7.32,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.57,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.845091Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.05,
      "output_float": 0.309876,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 2.26,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.919451Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_7b1d5b45a1ceb2012babd704",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510739041954086278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:04.459825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "525375740885161051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:16.055737Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "521998040962871826",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.222132Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "519746241188787092",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.222132Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "515241791647875565",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.222132Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.18,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "510739041954090058",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:34.149158Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "514116523133772618",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:30:34.149158Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "503983642533029923",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:22.845754Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "494976443342359266",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.308333Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
      "listing_id": "528753440605141785",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:21.308333Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:9"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $13.05
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $9.97
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $5.37
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $3.74
$13.05
+200.1%
$5.25
+20.8%
55.0%+52.4%$4.35—
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
5.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
5.0% $22.67
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $17.10
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $11.94
$26.72
+87.8%
$15.54
+9.2%
55.0%+27.9%$14.23—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
10.0% $2.03
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $1.92
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
10.0% $1.62
$9.85
+153.2%
$5.07
+30.4%
40.0%+100.3%$3.89—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $13.05
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $9.97
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.37
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $3.74
$13.05
+109.5%
$7.34
+17.8%
40.0%+57.8%$6.23—
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
15.0% $13.05
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
15.0% $10.31
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.37
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $3.74
$13.05
+124.7%
$6.70
+15.2%
30.0%+58.8%$5.81—
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
10.0% $13.33
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
10.0% $9.97
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.33
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
40.0% $3.55
$13.33
+160.8%
$5.88
+15.1%
60.0%+60.4%$5.11—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $22.67
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
20.0% $17.10
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
20.0% $11.94
$26.72
+45.5%
$20.63
+12.3%
60.0%+29.8%$18.37—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.67
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.10
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
25.0% $11.94
$26.72
+52.3%
$19.61
+11.7%
50.0%+31.9%$17.55—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $22.67
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
15.0% $11.94
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
15.0% $5.37
$26.72
+49.6%
$19.88
+11.3%
70.0%+43.4%$17.86—
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $22.67
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
5.0% $11.94
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
5.0% $5.37
$26.72
+16.5%
$23.09
+0.7%
45.0%+23.0%$22.93—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
20.0% $158.85
Green Energy
AWP | Green Energy
80.0% $109.76
$158.85
+40.5%
$119.57
+5.7%
20.0%+17.4%$113.09—
FS

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