The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Warm Blooded
1x $1.05
Copperflage
4x $0.17
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.50
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $13.37
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $10.07
Sheet Lightning
45.0% $5.26
Glockingbird
45.0% $3.86
Max Win
$13.37 (+158.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.28 (+1.9%)
Win %
55.0%
Volatility
+44.6%
Cost
$5.18
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.18
Ask Price EV $5.28 (+1.9%)
Bid Price EV $4.84 (-6.6%)
Ask Profit $0.10 (+1.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.34 (-6.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+8.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.10
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 55.0%
Loss Probability 45.0%
Best Case $13.37 (+158.0%)
Worst Case $3.86 (-25.5%)
Volatility +44.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$1.26
Avg Loss -$1.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.86 (-25.5%)
Std Dev $2.31
Avg Norm Float 0.1956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 24m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 27S //TOTAL COST $5.18 //ASK PRICE EV $5.28 //BID PRICE EV $4.84 //ASK PROFIT $0.10 (+1.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.34 (-6.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $13.37 //VOLATILITY +44.6% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$13.37
+$8.19
+158.0%
$12.05
+$6.87
+132.6%
$1.32
9.8%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$10.07
+$4.89
+94.4%
$9.29
+$4.11
+79.3%
$0.78
7.8%
—
PAPER WIN
45.0%
$5.26
+$0.08
+1.6%
$5.07
-$0.11
-2.1%
$0.19
3.7%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$3.86
-$1.32
-25.5%
$3.31
-$1.87
-36.1%
$0.55
14.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.1310185,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.857,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:25.695127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.1466625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.264,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:33.797580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13688499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.366,
"optimistic_value": 13.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:55.206363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.13688499999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 10.071,
"optimistic_value": 9.84,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:17.406965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7b1d5b45a1ceb2012babd704",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:40.277889Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "521998040962350366",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.340627Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:55.787155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "519746241188606228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "499479989895403681",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "520872141037740540",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089305639647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:21.482705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:46.226993Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $22.71 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 | $26.79 +85.2% | $15.81 +9.3% | 55.0% | +28.2% | $14.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 20.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $2.17 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.62 | $9.85 +277.4% | $3.50 +34.0% | 20.0% | +121.9% | $2.61 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.07 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.86 | $13.37 +131.6% | $6.71 +16.3% | 30.0% | +59.8% | $5.77 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $10.07 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.86 | $13.37 +88.8% | $8.14 +15.0% | 50.0% | +53.6% | $7.08 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.37 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.07 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.86 | $13.37 +69.2% | $8.86 +12.1% | 60.0% | +47.6% | $7.90 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $22.71 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.97 | $26.79 +77.9% | $16.80 +11.6% | 60.0% | +31.9% | $15.06 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $22.71 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $17.66 Glockingbird 15.0% $11.97 | $26.79 +34.3% | $21.77 +9.1% | 70.0% | +25.6% | $19.95 | — |