The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Warm Blooded
1x $2.26
Poplar Thicket
8x $0.97
Copperflage
1x $1.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $22.69
Sheet Lightning
45.0% $17.31
Glockingbird
45.0% $11.97
Max Win
$26.72 (+33.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.64 (-22.2%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+19.9%
Cost
$20.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.10
Ask Price EV $15.64 (-22.2%)
Bid Price EV $15.26 (-24.1%)
Ask Profit $-4.46 (-22.2%)
Bid Profit $-4.84 (-24.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+1.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.84
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $26.72 (+33.0%)
Worst Case $11.97 (-40.5%)
Volatility +19.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$4.60
Avg Loss -$5.46
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-40.5%)
Std Dev $3.99
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 16m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.26 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Factory New
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 55S //TOTAL COST $20.10 //ASK PRICE EV $15.64 //BID PRICE EV $15.26 //ASK PROFIT $-4.46 (-22.2%) //BID PROFIT $-4.84 (-24.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $26.72 //VOLATILITY +19.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
5.0%
$26.72
+$6.62
+33.0%
$26.22
+$6.12
+30.4%
$0.50
1.9%
—
PAPER WIN
5.0%
$22.69
+$2.59
+12.9%
$19.86
-$0.24
-1.2%
$2.83
12.5%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$17.31
-$2.79
-13.9%
$17.09
-$3.01
-15.0%
$0.22
1.2%
—
NUKE
45.0%
$11.97
-$8.13
-40.5%
$11.70
-$8.40
-41.8%
$0.27
2.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04668560000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.967,
"optimistic_value": 11.96,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:19.633677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.05226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.306,
"optimistic_value": 17.11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:36.487209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.724,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:30.518258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048776,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.685000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 22.37,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 19.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:30.146949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7b1d5b45a1ceb2012babd704",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526501640650543289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.356203Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:34.738929Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "505109542379963072",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.082911Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "502857689862180880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "527627487624113108",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "518620288314275428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "520871291133961776",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "659356415310796570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:55.609296Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 5.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $22.69 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $17.31 Glockingbird 45.0% $11.97 | $26.72 +86.9% | $15.64 +9.4% | 55.0% | +27.9% | $14.30 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 5.0% $13.51 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $10.31 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.69 | $13.51 +161.9% | $5.22 +1.2% | 55.0% | +46.6% | $5.16 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.18 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 25.0% $1.62 | $9.85 +237.3% | $3.92 +34.3% | 25.0% | +117.5% | $2.92 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.11 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 15.0% $1.62 | $9.85 +172.9% | $4.74 +31.2% | 35.0% | +104.1% | $3.61 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.11 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 5.0% $1.62 | $9.85 +119.9% | $5.57 +24.3% | 45.0% | +86.5% | $4.48 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 15.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $10.31 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.69 | $13.87 +142.5% | $6.76 +18.2% | 30.0% | +64.4% | $5.72 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 20.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $22.71 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $17.31 Glockingbird 30.0% $11.97 | $26.72 +62.7% | $18.67 +13.6% | 70.0% | +33.5% | $16.43 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 30.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $22.71 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $17.10 Glockingbird 20.0% $11.97 | $26.72 +45.4% | $20.65 +12.3% | 60.0% | +29.8% | $18.38 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 10.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $22.69 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $17.31 Glockingbird 40.0% $11.95 | $26.72 +77.9% | $16.64 +10.8% | 60.0% | +31.8% | $15.02 | — |