The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.16
Spirit Board
1x $0.28
Necro Jr.
1x $0.30
Foresight
1x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
15.0% $4.51
Ticket to Hell
14.0% $1.67
Dream Glade
14.0% $1.63
Night Terror
14.0% $1.58
Space Cat
14.0% $1.25
Max Win
$12.25 (+228.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.52 (-5.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+102.7%
Cost
$3.73
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.73
Ask Price EV $3.52 (-5.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.25 (-12.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.21 (-5.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.48 (-12.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.27 (+7.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.48
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+228.3%)
Worst Case $1.03 (-72.5%)
Volatility +102.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.65
Avg Loss -$2.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.03 (-72.5%)
Std Dev $3.83
Avg Norm Float 0.1489
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 142h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 32S //TOTAL COST $3.73 //ASK PRICE EV $3.52 //BID PRICE EV $3.25 //ASK PROFIT $-0.21 (-5.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.48 (-12.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +102.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$12.25
+$8.52
+228.3%
$11.36
+$7.63
+204.6%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
15.0%
$4.51
+$0.78
+20.9%
$4.10
+$0.37
+9.9%
$0.41
9.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.67
-$2.06
-55.2%
$1.44
-$2.29
-61.4%
$0.23
13.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.63
-$2.10
-56.2%
$1.62
-$2.11
-56.6%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.58
-$2.15
-57.6%
$1.43
-$2.30
-61.7%
$0.15
9.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.25
-$2.48
-66.6%
$1.16
-$2.57
-68.9%
$0.09
7.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.03
-$2.70
-72.5%
$0.99
-$2.74
-73.5%
$0.04
3.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.111705,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.10425799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.5089999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:33.281426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14894,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6335,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:47.678713Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10425799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:58:34.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0997898,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2469999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:17.572956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11319439999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.67,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:34:53.881844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07447,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.0275,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:35.248218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_770ea1343dd9ab433edbb19b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "501731737286578949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:44.736388Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "511864091800288269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:44.736388Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "521997935570639898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:51.453854Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "524249787961840407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:47.990609Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.074533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:58.861673Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:23.467024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:17.283985Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "521997988015813938",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:33.769810Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:58.576291Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +345.3% | $3.41 +24.1% | 30.0% | +137.2% | $2.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $0.96 Space Cat 14.0% $0.93 | $5.85 +230.5% | $1.87 +5.7% | 30.0% | +95.5% | $1.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.52 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.61 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +287.5% | $4.12 +30.4% | 40.0% | +130.1% | $3.16 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $0.96 Space Cat 4.0% $0.93 | $6.12 +115.4% | $3.53 +24.4% | 40.0% | +73.7% | $2.84 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.48 +24.4% | 60.0% | +101.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.58 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.77 +23.8% | 50.0% | +112.3% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.21 +22.0% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $5.09 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.05 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $0.90 | $12.25 +89.0% | $7.55 +16.5% | 45.0% | +65.4% | $6.48 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +425.5% | $2.70 +16.0% | 20.0% | +139.7% | $2.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |