The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.16
Spirit Board
3x $0.20
Necro Jr.
1x $0.30
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
Aeolian Light
1x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
15.0% $4.48
Ticket to Hell
14.0% $1.67
Night Terror
14.0% $1.58
Space Cat
14.0% $1.25
Zombie Offensive
14.0% $1.03
Max Win
$12.25 (+384.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.41 (+34.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+153.5%
Cost
$2.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.53
Ask Price EV $3.41 (+34.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.14 (+24.3%)
Ask Profit $0.88 (+34.8%)
Bid Profit $0.61 (+24.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.27 (+10.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.88
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.61
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+384.0%)
Worst Case $0.91 (-64.1%)
Volatility +153.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$5.83
Avg Loss -$1.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.91 (-64.1%)
Std Dev $3.88
Avg Norm Float 0.1969
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 141h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 50M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.53 //ASK PRICE EV $3.41 //BID PRICE EV $3.14 //ASK PROFIT $0.88 (+34.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.61 (+24.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +153.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$12.25
+$9.72
+384.0%
$11.36
+$8.83
+349.0%
$0.89
7.2%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$4.48
+$1.95
+77.0%
$4.10
+$1.57
+62.1%
$0.38
8.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.67
-$0.86
-34.0%
$1.44
-$1.09
-43.1%
$0.23
13.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.58
-$0.95
-37.5%
$1.43
-$1.10
-43.5%
$0.15
9.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.25
-$1.28
-50.6%
$1.16
-$1.37
-54.2%
$0.09
7.2%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.03
-$1.50
-59.1%
$0.99
-$1.54
-60.9%
$0.04
4.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.91
-$1.62
-64.1%
$0.87
-$1.66
-65.6%
$0.04
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1476825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.137837,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.4775,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:58.141515Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.19691,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.908,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:28.236969Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.137837,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:58:34.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1319297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2505,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:59.654543Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1496516,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.67,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:32.948871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.098455,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.0345,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:01.495545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_770ea1343dd9ab433edbb19b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "501731737286578949",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "511864091800288269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "521997935570639898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:57.244708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "644715839416488156",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:48.000884Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "755049594443143112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:48.000884Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "505109489448839144",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:58.947551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.555570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:33.256443Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "498354089953069411",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:38.159872Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "524249787961717575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:01.112902Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $0.89 Space Cat 14.0% $0.86 | $5.85 +234.3% | $1.85 +5.7% | 30.0% | +97.3% | $1.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 15.0% $15.24 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $4.90 Night Terror 14.0% $3.99 Space Cat 14.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $2.68 | $26.93 +214.2% | $8.63 +0.7% | 30.0% | +98.2% | $8.57 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 8.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +189.5% | $5.47 +29.3% | 60.0% | +105.6% | $4.23 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.67 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +282.7% | $4.11 +28.6% | 40.0% | +128.3% | $3.20 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.48 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.67 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +149.9% | $6.24 +27.3% | 35.0% | +89.9% | $4.90 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.51 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.03 Dream Glade 4.0% $0.91 | $12.25 +123.0% | $6.93 +26.2% | 40.0% | +79.2% | $5.49 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.67 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.83 +25.5% | 50.0% | +111.9% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +464.3% | $2.71 +24.7% | 20.0% | +149.9% | $2.17 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.01 Night Terror 2.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $0.96 Space Cat 2.0% $0.86 | $6.12 +96.0% | $3.85 +23.5% | 45.0% | +65.3% | $3.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |