The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Necro Jr.
4x $0.30
Foresight
2x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.34
Creep
1x $1.43
Aeolian Light
1x $2.00
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
15.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
15.0% $14.30
Dream Glade
14.0% $8.61
Ticket to Hell
14.0% $4.91
Night Terror
14.0% $3.99
Space Cat
14.0% $3.22
Max Win
$26.93 (+91.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.46 (-32.7%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+58.8%
Cost
$14.05
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.05
Ask Price EV $9.46 (-32.7%)
Bid Price EV $9.22 (-34.4%)
Ask Profit $-4.59 (-32.7%)
Bid Profit $-4.83 (-34.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.83
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+91.6%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-80.9%)
Volatility +58.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$6.57
Avg Loss -$9.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-80.9%)
Std Dev $8.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 4h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 39S //TOTAL COST $14.05 //ASK PRICE EV $9.46 //BID PRICE EV $9.22 //ASK PROFIT $-4.59 (-32.7%) //BID PROFIT $-4.83 (-34.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +58.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$26.93
+$12.88
+91.6%
$26.63
+$12.58
+89.5%
$0.30
1.1%
—
PAPER WIN
15.0%
$14.30
+$0.25
+1.8%
$13.15
-$0.90
-6.4%
$1.15
8.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$8.61
-$5.44
-38.7%
$8.53
-$5.52
-39.3%
$0.08
0.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.91
-$9.14
-65.0%
$4.89
-$9.16
-65.2%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.99
-$10.06
-71.6%
$3.97
-$10.08
-71.7%
$0.02
0.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.22
-$10.83
-77.1%
$3.19
-$10.86
-77.3%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.68
-$11.37
-80.9%
$2.67
-$11.38
-81.0%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0524925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.304499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:37.229552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.607,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:47.804609Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.987,
"optimistic_value": 3.98,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:30.761709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0468933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:47.035767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0531924,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9135,
"optimistic_value": 4.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:52.874582Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:28.693453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_770ea1343dd9ab433edbb19b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:05.074533Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:58.861673Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:23.467024Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "499479989896070437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:41.880215Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "521997935570187702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "490472738292010095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:03.741083Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:7+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.67 Night Terror 14.0% $1.58 Space Cat 14.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +345.3% | $3.41 +24.1% | 30.0% | +137.2% | $2.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 15.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.24 Night Terror 14.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $0.96 Space Cat 14.0% $0.93 | $5.85 +230.5% | $1.87 +5.7% | 30.0% | +95.5% | $1.77 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.52 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.61 Night Terror 12.0% $1.58 Space Cat 12.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +287.5% | $4.12 +30.4% | 40.0% | +130.1% | $3.16 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.24 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $0.96 Space Cat 4.0% $0.93 | $6.12 +115.4% | $3.53 +24.4% | 40.0% | +73.7% | $2.84 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.51 Night Terror 8.0% $1.58 Space Cat 8.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +177.7% | $5.48 +24.4% | 60.0% | +101.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.58 Night Terror 10.0% $1.58 Space Cat 10.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.05 | $12.25 +218.1% | $4.77 +23.8% | 50.0% | +112.3% | $3.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Night Terror 6.0% $1.58 Space Cat 6.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.03 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.21 +22.0% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $5.09 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.05 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $0.90 | $12.25 +89.0% | $7.55 +16.5% | 45.0% | +65.4% | $6.48 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.51 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.03 | $12.25 +425.5% | $2.70 +16.0% | 20.0% | +139.7% | $2.33 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Abyssal Apparition  20.0% $9.32 Melondrama  20.0% $8.83 Rapid Eye Movement  20.0% $8.83 | $27.17 +96.9% | $16.26 +17.9% | 40.0% | +64.5% | $13.80 | — |