The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Winterized
1x $0.28
Roadblock
2x $0.29
Warm Blooded
5x $0.51
Sky Mandala
1x $0.60
Earth Mandala
1x $0.70
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.75
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Dragon Tech
6.0% $1.21
Vent Rush
6.0% $1.18
Downtown
6.0% $1.10
Crazy 8
6.0% $0.79
Max Win
$13.75 (+95.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.25 (+31.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+77.5%
Cost
$7.05
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.05
Ask Price EV $9.25 (+31.2%)
Bid Price EV $7.91 (+12.2%)
Ask Profit $2.20 (+31.2%)
Bid Profit $0.86 (+12.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.34 (+19.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.20
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.86
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.75 (+95.0%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-89.5%)
Volatility +77.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.74
Avg Loss -$6.05
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-89.5%)
Std Dev $5.46
Avg Norm Float 0.2143
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 52h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Glock-18 | Winterized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Roadblock
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.04 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 24M 58S //TOTAL COST $7.05 //ASK PRICE EV $9.25 //BID PRICE EV $7.91 //ASK PROFIT $2.20 (+31.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.86 (+12.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.75 //VOLATILITY +77.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.75
+$6.70
+95.0%
$12.11
+$5.06
+71.8%
$1.64
11.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$4.77
+67.7%
$9.69
+$2.64
+37.4%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.21
-$5.84
-82.8%
$1.12
-$5.93
-84.1%
$0.09
7.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.18
-$5.87
-83.3%
$1.08
-$5.97
-84.7%
$0.10
8.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.10
-$5.95
-84.4%
$1.03
-$6.02
-85.4%
$0.07
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.79
-$6.26
-88.8%
$0.70
-$6.35
-90.1%
$0.09
11.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$6.31
-89.5%
$0.69
-$6.36
-90.2%
$0.05
6.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.751,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:18:25.864602Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21426,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.7375,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:57.050234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.139269,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 1.1,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:32.722249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.149982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 1.1800000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 1.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:33.079699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21426,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:41.928789Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.149982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 1.213,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:42.516846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75728d8e0e7a17c14dfbd0dd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2a4119de0db9",
"listing_id": "499479989895563665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Winterized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Winterized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2a4119de0db9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:09.908459Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "492724538183456433",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:28.875924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-de854ad43079",
"listing_id": "518620235869857460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Roadblock",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-de854ad43079.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:28.875924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "503983589619183691",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:19.684316Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:09.618496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "518620288313571268",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:28.470121Z"
},
{
"price": 1.04,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290329392043",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472738290593603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.210790Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $1.74 | $26.79 +69.9% | $18.93 +20.0% | 70.0% | +60.4% | $15.77 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.48 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 6.0% $0.69 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.69 Downtown 6.0% $0.67 | $7.31 +119.0% | $3.63 +8.7% | 35.0% | +80.8% | $3.34 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.48 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.71 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 Dragon Tech 6.0% $0.69 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $0.69 | $7.31 +109.0% | $3.64 +3.9% | 35.0% | +77.0% | $3.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.75 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.32 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.12 Downtown 16.0% $1.09 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.79 | $13.75 +435.1% | $3.37 +31.0% | 20.0% | +179.6% | $2.57 | — |