The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Poly Mag
2x $0.13
Destroyer
1x $0.14
Sky Mandala
4x $0.35
Fraise Crane
1x $0.37
Warm Blooded
1x $0.47
Earth Mandala
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $7.31
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.36
Vent Rush
6.0% $0.70
Downtown
6.0% $0.69
Crazy 8
6.0% $0.69
Dragon Tech
6.0% $0.67
Max Win
$7.31 (+118.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.59 (+7.2%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+84.0%
Cost
$3.35
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.35
Ask Price EV $3.59 (+7.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (+2.5%)
Ask Profit $0.24 (+7.2%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+2.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+4.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $7.31 (+118.3%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-80.5%)
Volatility +84.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$3.96
Avg Loss -$1.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-80.5%)
Std Dev $2.81
Avg Norm Float 0.4950
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 142h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Poly Mag
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 10S //TOTAL COST $3.35 //ASK PRICE EV $3.59 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $0.24 (+7.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+2.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +84.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$7.31
+$3.96
+118.3%
$7.05
+$3.70
+110.4%
$0.26
3.6%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.36
-$0.99
-29.5%
$2.25
-$1.10
-32.8%
$0.11
4.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$2.65
-79.0%
$0.61
-$2.74
-81.8%
$0.09
13.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.69
-$2.66
-79.4%
$0.61
-$2.74
-81.8%
$0.08
11.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.69
-$2.66
-79.4%
$0.55
-$2.80
-83.6%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.67
-$2.68
-80.1%
$0.62
-$2.73
-81.5%
$0.05
7.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.65
-$2.70
-80.5%
$0.57
-$2.78
-83.0%
$0.08
12.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.346514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.3135,
"optimistic_value": 7.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 7.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:21.447988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.346514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.3615,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:38.646800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.49502,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.583802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.321763,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:43.326959Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.346514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 0.7034999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:32:58.063801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.49502,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:46.752845Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.346514,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 0.6675,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:20.288837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75728d8e0e7a17c14dfbd0dd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "529879287550866924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:44.616064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "518620288314035452",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:45:24.417255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-35998e06d00e",
"listing_id": "492724538183414529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Poly Mag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-35998e06d00e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:42:44.616064Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850490550207360",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "507361289453258221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "501731789729082221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.754180Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "508487189339587610",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.052753Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "520872088106943564",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:05.155137Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985363085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.797621Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "494976390476927238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:04.773812Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.77 | $13.90 +96.8% | $9.30 +31.8% | 70.0% | +72.0% | $7.06 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $1.75 | $26.79 +71.2% | $18.93 +21.0% | 70.0% | +60.8% | $15.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.21 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $13.78 +168.0% | $6.91 +34.4% | 50.0% | +109.1% | $5.14 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.21 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.77 | $13.78 +124.0% | $8.08 +31.4% | 60.0% | +88.6% | $6.15 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.80 | $13.78 +431.9% | $3.37 +30.3% | 20.0% | +178.4% | $2.59 | — |