The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Meow 36
1x $0.47
Destroyer
2x $1.86
Warm Blooded
4x $2.27
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Crazy 8
6.0% $10.95
Flora Carnivora
6.0% $10.55
Dragon Tech
6.0% $4.38
Vent Rush
6.0% $4.20
Max Win
$26.79 (+22.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.01 (-8.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+40.9%
Cost
$21.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.86
Ask Price EV $20.01 (-8.5%)
Bid Price EV $18.88 (-13.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.85 (-8.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.98 (-13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.13 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.85
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.98
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+22.5%)
Worst Case $3.53 (-83.9%)
Volatility +40.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.85
Avg Loss -$15.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.53 (-83.9%)
Std Dev $8.93
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 22h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Meow 36
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Destroyer
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 17M 54S //TOTAL COST $21.86 //ASK PRICE EV $20.01 //BID PRICE EV $18.88 //ASK PROFIT $-1.85 (-8.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.98 (-13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +40.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.79
+$4.93
+22.5%
$25.96
+$4.10
+18.8%
$0.83
3.1%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$2.77
+12.7%
$22.28
+$0.42
+1.9%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.95
-$10.91
-49.9%
$10.89
-$10.97
-50.2%
$0.06
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.55
-$11.31
-51.7%
$10.30
-$11.56
-52.9%
$0.25
2.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.38
-$17.48
-80.0%
$4.37
-$17.49
-80.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.20
-$17.66
-80.8%
$4.19
-$17.67
-80.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.53
-$18.33
-83.9%
$3.52
-$18.34
-83.9%
$0.01
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:27.397267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"realistic_value": 10.5525,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"conservative_value": 10.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:35.285591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.045344,
"output_skin_id": "skin-302f05527562",
"realistic_value": 3.53,
"optimistic_value": 3.53,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Downtown",
"conservative_value": 3.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Downtown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:47:28.775422Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-302f05527562.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"realistic_value": 4.2,
"optimistic_value": 4.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"conservative_value": 4.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:27:24.072062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"realistic_value": 10.949,
"optimistic_value": 10.9,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"conservative_value": 10.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:39:33.190076Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"realistic_value": 4.38,
"optimistic_value": 4.38,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"conservative_value": 4.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:21:55.521801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_75728d8e0e7a17c14dfbd0dd",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-14669f15615e",
"listing_id": "651475115893292082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Meow 36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-14669f15615e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:44:26.798156Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "630083017705289418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:47.931797Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-8300d759e7a9",
"listing_id": "596305411434979669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Destroyer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8300d759e7a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:36:47.931797Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "529879287550357884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:54.692202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:52.763410Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.90 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 6.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 6.0% $1.21 Downtown 6.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.77 | $13.90 +96.8% | $9.30 +31.8% | 70.0% | +72.0% | $7.06 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Dragon Tech 6.0% $4.38 Vent Rush 6.0% $4.20 Downtown 6.0% $3.53 Flora Carnivora 6.0% $1.75 | $26.79 +71.2% | $18.93 +21.0% | 70.0% | +60.8% | $15.65 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $7.31 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.36 Vent Rush 6.0% $0.70 Downtown 6.0% $0.69 Crazy 8 6.0% $0.69 Dragon Tech 6.0% $0.67 | $7.31 +118.3% | $3.59 +7.2% | 35.0% | +81.2% | $3.35 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 10.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 10.0% $1.21 Downtown 10.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 10.0% $0.80 | $13.78 +168.0% | $6.91 +34.4% | 50.0% | +109.1% | $5.14 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 8.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 8.0% $1.21 Downtown 8.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 8.0% $0.77 | $13.78 +124.0% | $8.08 +31.4% | 60.0% | +88.6% | $6.15 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.78 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Dragon Tech 16.0% $1.21 Vent Rush 16.0% $1.21 Downtown 16.0% $1.10 Crazy 8 16.0% $0.80 | $13.78 +431.9% | $3.37 +30.3% | 20.0% | +178.4% | $2.59 | — |