The Inferno Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
3x $3.49
Wash me plz
4x $0.14
Wash me
1x $0.15
Wall Bang
1x $0.17
Midnight Paintover
1x $0.35
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
15.0% $40.55
Anodized Navy
15.0% $35.31
Pipsqueak
17.5% $1.22
Wurst Hölle
17.5% $1.17
Metallic Squeezer
17.5% $0.78
Teal Graf
17.5% $0.69
Max Win
$40.55 (+194.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.05 (-12.3%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+123.7%
Cost
$13.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.75
Ask Price EV $12.05 (-12.3%)
Bid Price EV $9.97 (-27.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.70 (-12.3%)
Bid Profit $-3.78 (-27.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.09 (+15.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.70
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.78
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $40.55 (+194.9%)
Worst Case $0.69 (-95.0%)
Volatility +123.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$24.18
Avg Loss -$12.79
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.69 (-95.0%)
Std Dev $17.00
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 143h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.49 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Wash me
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Wall Bang
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Wash me plz
—
Factory New
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 57M 19S //TOTAL COST $13.75 //ASK PRICE EV $12.05 //BID PRICE EV $9.97 //ASK PROFIT $-1.70 (-12.3%) //BID PROFIT $-3.78 (-27.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $40.55 //VOLATILITY +123.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$40.55
+$26.80
+194.9%
$28.61
+$14.86
+108.1%
$11.94
29.5%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$35.31
+$21.56
+156.8%
$33.55
+$19.80
+144.0%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$1.22
-$12.53
-91.1%
$1.12
-$12.63
-91.9%
$0.10
8.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$1.17
-$12.58
-91.5%
$1.15
-$12.60
-91.6%
$0.02
1.7%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.78
-$12.97
-94.3%
$0.74
-$13.01
-94.6%
$0.04
5.1%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$0.69
-$13.06
-95.0%
$0.66
-$13.09
-95.2%
$0.03
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.08997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:24.836819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.074975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:36.929387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.134955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4d819a5e4be2",
"realistic_value": 1.2169999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T11:42:04.443708Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4d819a5e4be2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.14995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"realistic_value": 1.17,
"optimistic_value": 1.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:29.882823Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.011996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.14995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 40.553,
"optimistic_value": 38.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 28.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:52.450752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_72dd175980dc4ca283bec9ad",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "517494222854307622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:28.957785Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "639086339885251905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:28.957785Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524249529996069051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:28.957785Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "499479989896841845",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:31.914469Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-d26b2336552f",
"listing_id": "505108692497359868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wash me (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Wash me",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d26b2336552f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:36.290421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "519746135814609704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:31.914469Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "515242536108092773",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:48:31.914469Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c5f7f8d41bc2",
"listing_id": "490472790736935195",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Wall Bang (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Wall Bang",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c5f7f8d41bc2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:15.088649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-aec4b9b50be0",
"listing_id": "493850438105686036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Midnight Paintover",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aec4b9b50be0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:26.005352Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-85f1f4db456f",
"listing_id": "501731737286075237",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Wash me plz",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-85f1f4db456f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:24.196236Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:3+collection-set-overpass-2024:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 15.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 15.0% $35.31 Pipsqueak 17.5% $6.82 Wurst Hölle 17.5% $5.10 Metallic Squeezer 17.5% $2.33 Teal Graf 17.5% $2.18 | $181.74 +573.4% | $35.43 +31.3% | 30.0% | +231.4% | $26.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 10.0% $35.31 Pipsqueak 20.0% $6.82 Wurst Hölle 20.0% $5.10 Metallic Squeezer 20.0% $2.33 Teal Graf 20.0% $2.18 | $181.74 +840.7% | $24.99 +29.4% | 20.0% | +274.8% | $19.32 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Pipsqueak 22.5% $6.82 Wurst Hölle 22.5% $5.10 Metallic Squeezer 22.5% $2.33 Teal Graf 22.5% $2.18 | $181.74 +1370.4% | $14.55 +17.7% | 10.0% | +315.5% | $12.36 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Pipsqueak 12.5% $6.82 Wurst Hölle 12.5% $5.10 Metallic Squeezer 12.5% $2.34 Teal Graf 12.5% $2.18 | $181.74 +262.1% | $56.32 +12.2% | 25.0% | +146.5% | $50.19 | — |