The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poultrygeist
1x $0.12
Scrawl
1x $0.13
Foresight
1x $0.14
Aeolian Light
2x $0.27
Creep
2x $0.28
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
35.0% $2.37
Night Terror
6.0% $1.00
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $0.97
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $0.96
Space Cat
6.0% $0.85
Max Win
$5.85 (+107.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.15 (+11.8%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+73.2%
Cost
$2.82
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.82
Ask Price EV $3.15 (+11.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.71 (-3.7%)
Ask Profit $0.33 (+11.8%)
Bid Profit $-0.11 (-3.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.44 (+15.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.11
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+107.5%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-70.6%)
Volatility +73.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.03
Avg Loss -$1.12
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-70.6%)
Std Dev $2.06
Avg Norm Float 0.4180
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 152h 28m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 23S //TOTAL COST $2.82 //ASK PRICE EV $3.15 //BID PRICE EV $2.71 //ASK PROFIT $0.33 (+11.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.11 (-3.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +73.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$5.85
+$3.03
+107.5%
$4.91
+$2.09
+74.1%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$2.37
-$0.45
-16.1%
$2.13
-$0.69
-24.5%
$0.24
10.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.00
-$1.82
-64.6%
$0.87
-$1.95
-69.1%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.97
-$1.85
-65.6%
$0.87
-$1.95
-69.1%
$0.10
10.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.96
-$1.86
-65.9%
$0.81
-$2.01
-71.3%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.85
-$1.97
-70.0%
$0.81
-$2.01
-71.3%
$0.04
4.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.83
-$1.99
-70.6%
$0.82
-$2.00
-70.9%
$0.01
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.31353000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.292628,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.366,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:36.738814Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.41804,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:53:31.367162Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.292628,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2800868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.847,
"optimistic_value": 0.84,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:48:31.065387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.3177104,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.97,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:46:45.066835Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.20902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_71406653cae8525b3eb95f8e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "490472843633184807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:59:48.785246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "498354142900378543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:57.058440Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "491598690699311594",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:42.141960Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879287550318068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:57:54.017539Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:52.084860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "492724643507806221",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:21.338948Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "506235442367927376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:53.352914Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472625090080763",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "528753221920943049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:46.337713Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Night Terror 6.0% $1.52 Space Cat 6.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +149.4% | $6.35 +29.3% | 70.0% | +89.4% | $4.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.55 Night Terror 6.0% $3.99 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.66 | $26.93 +105.7% | $15.31 +16.9% | 70.0% | +70.3% | $13.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.66 Night Terror 10.0% $1.52 Space Cat 10.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +223.9% | $4.93 +30.4% | 50.0% | +113.8% | $3.78 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Night Terror 8.0% $1.52 Space Cat 8.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.92 | $12.25 +182.8% | $5.60 +29.3% | 60.0% | +102.4% | $4.33 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.66 Night Terror 12.0% $1.52 Space Cat 12.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +274.5% | $4.20 +28.3% | 40.0% | +125.9% | $3.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.66 Night Terror 14.0% $1.52 Space Cat 14.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +351.8% | $3.46 +27.8% | 30.0% | +140.0% | $2.71 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Night Terror 4.0% $1.44 Space Cat 4.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $0.95 | $12.25 +121.4% | $7.00 +26.6% | 40.0% | +78.0% | $5.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Night Terror 2.0% $1.44 Space Cat 2.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $0.95 | $12.25 +91.3% | $7.74 +20.9% | 45.0% | +63.9% | $6.40 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.71 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.66 Night Terror 16.0% $1.44 Space Cat 16.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +434.7% | $2.68 +17.2% | 20.0% | +143.3% | $2.29 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Melondrama  23.3% $9.00 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.81 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.72 | $27.17 +129.5% | $14.34 +21.1% | 30.0% | +70.9% | $11.84 | — |