The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.43
Spirit Board
1x $1.52
Necro Jr.
1x $1.53
Grip Tape
4x $0.80
Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
The Daily Deagle
2x $1.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
35.0% $14.55
Night Terror
6.0% $3.99
Space Cat
6.0% $3.22
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $2.68
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $1.66
Max Win
$26.93 (+105.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.31 (+16.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+74.8%
Cost
$13.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.09
Ask Price EV $15.31 (+16.9%)
Bid Price EV $14.70 (+12.3%)
Ask Profit $2.22 (+16.9%)
Bid Profit $1.61 (+12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.61 (+4.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.22
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.61
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+105.7%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-87.5%)
Volatility +74.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$7.65
Avg Loss -$10.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.64 (-87.5%)
Std Dev $9.79
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 13h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.23 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 22S //TOTAL COST $13.09 //ASK PRICE EV $15.31 //BID PRICE EV $14.70 //ASK PROFIT $2.22 (+16.9%) //BID PROFIT $1.61 (+12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +74.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.93
+$13.84
+105.7%
$26.63
+$13.54
+103.4%
$0.30
1.1%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$14.55
+$1.46
+11.1%
$13.16
+$0.07
+0.5%
$1.38
9.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.99
-$9.10
-69.5%
$3.98
-$9.11
-69.6%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.22
-$9.87
-75.4%
$3.19
-$9.90
-75.6%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.68
-$10.41
-79.5%
$2.67
-$10.42
-79.6%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$1.66
-$11.43
-87.3%
$1.45
-$11.64
-88.9%
$0.21
12.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.64
-$11.45
-87.5%
$1.62
-$11.47
-87.6%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.065247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.545,
"optimistic_value": 14.44,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.065247,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.99,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.775780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.062450700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:49:01.453062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0708396,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.66,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:56:10.709898Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.046605,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:11:06.340846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_71406653cae8525b3eb95f8e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "497228243055296981",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:47.010621Z"
},
{
"price": 1.52,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "526501640650777937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:29.585537Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "529879340432406648",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:11.778575Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "512990841908333123",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:22.526621Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "523123835627780158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:22.526621Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.859818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.23,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "499479193126471981",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.424683Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "499479989895953869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.424683Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "526501640651063345",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 Night Terror 6.0% $1.52 Space Cat 6.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 | $12.25 +149.4% | $6.35 +29.3% | 70.0% | +89.4% | $4.91 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.37 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.97 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Space Cat 6.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +107.5% | $3.15 +11.8% | 35.0% | +70.4% | $2.82 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.66 Night Terror 10.0% $1.52 Space Cat 10.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +223.9% | $4.93 +30.4% | 50.0% | +113.8% | $3.78 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Night Terror 8.0% $1.52 Space Cat 8.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.92 | $12.25 +182.8% | $5.60 +29.3% | 60.0% | +102.4% | $4.33 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.66 Night Terror 12.0% $1.52 Space Cat 12.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +274.5% | $4.20 +28.3% | 40.0% | +125.9% | $3.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.66 Night Terror 14.0% $1.52 Space Cat 14.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +351.8% | $3.46 +27.8% | 30.0% | +140.0% | $2.71 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.71 Night Terror 4.0% $1.44 Space Cat 4.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $0.95 | $12.25 +121.4% | $7.00 +26.6% | 40.0% | +78.0% | $5.53 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.71 Night Terror 2.0% $1.44 Space Cat 2.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $0.95 | $12.25 +91.3% | $7.74 +20.9% | 45.0% | +63.9% | $6.40 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.71 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.66 Night Terror 16.0% $1.44 Space Cat 16.0% $1.21 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +434.7% | $2.68 +17.2% | 20.0% | +143.3% | $2.29 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Melondrama  23.3% $9.00 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.81 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.72 | $27.17 +129.5% | $14.34 +21.1% | 30.0% | +70.9% | $11.84 | — |