The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.18
Grip Tape
2x $0.35
Aeolian Light
5x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
35.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
35.0% $5.01
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $1.63
Night Terror
6.0% $1.47
Space Cat
6.0% $1.24
Zombie Offensive
6.0% $1.00
Max Win
$12.25 (+145.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.41 (+28.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+91.0%
Cost
$4.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.99
Ask Price EV $6.41 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.81 (+16.5%)
Ask Profit $1.42 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $0.82 (+16.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.60 (+12.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.42
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.82
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+145.4%)
Worst Case $0.88 (-82.4%)
Volatility +91.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.64
Avg Loss -$3.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.88 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $4.54
Avg Norm Float 0.1954
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 151h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 44S //TOTAL COST $4.99 //ASK PRICE EV $6.41 //BID PRICE EV $5.81 //ASK PROFIT $1.42 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.82 (+16.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +91.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$12.25
+$7.26
+145.4%
$11.36
+$6.37
+127.7%
$0.89
7.2%
—
PAPER WIN
35.0%
$5.01
+$0.02
+0.5%
$4.25
-$0.74
-14.8%
$0.76
15.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.63
-$3.36
-67.3%
$1.45
-$3.54
-70.9%
$0.18
11.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.47
-$3.52
-70.5%
$1.35
-$3.64
-72.9%
$0.12
8.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.24
-$3.75
-75.1%
$1.16
-$3.83
-76.8%
$0.08
6.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.00
-$3.99
-80.0%
$0.99
-$4.00
-80.2%
$0.01
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.88
-$4.11
-82.4%
$0.87
-$4.12
-82.6%
$0.01
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.146565,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.136794,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 5.0135,
"optimistic_value": 5.01,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:01.722586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19542,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.88,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:11:14.973080Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.136794,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.471,
"optimistic_value": 1.45,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:15:20.185426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1309314,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.244,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:29.942134Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14851920000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.6340000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.62,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:43.642204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09771,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:45:53.006250Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_71406653cae8525b3eb95f8e",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "507361342334074093",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:21.875095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "507361342333856833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:21.875095Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "496101493269460391",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:14.226630Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "521998040962764762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:46.375137Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "512990841908349539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:21.023367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620122757210468",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:21.023367Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "509613142167999039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.101623Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "497228243055167129",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:02:41.800276Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "500605889842133939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.101623Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "648097416149991260",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:47.101623Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.32 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.85 | $5.85 +138.8% | $3.13 +28.0% | 35.0% | +81.3% | $2.45 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.32 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $0.96 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 Dream Glade 6.0% $0.83 | $5.85 +120.8% | $3.13 +18.2% | 35.0% | +75.3% | $2.65 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.30 Night Terror 6.0% $3.99 Space Cat 6.0% $3.22 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $2.67 Dream Glade 6.0% $1.64 | $26.93 +97.8% | $15.22 +11.8% | 70.0% | +67.7% | $13.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.32 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $1.01 Night Terror 2.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 2.0% $0.85 | $6.12 +103.9% | $3.89 +29.7% | 45.0% | +66.9% | $3.00 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $5.01 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.63 Night Terror 10.0% $1.47 Space Cat 10.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +221.4% | $4.94 +29.6% | 50.0% | +113.1% | $3.81 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 Night Terror 8.0% $1.52 Space Cat 8.0% $1.27 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.92 | $12.25 +182.8% | $5.60 +29.3% | 60.0% | +102.4% | $4.33 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 40.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.32 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $0.96 Dream Glade 4.0% $0.85 | $6.12 +120.0% | $3.56 +28.1% | 40.0% | +74.7% | $2.78 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $5.01 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.63 Night Terror 14.0% $1.47 Space Cat 14.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 14.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +350.2% | $3.46 +27.2% | 30.0% | +140.0% | $2.72 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Achroma Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $5.01 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.66 Night Terror 16.0% $1.50 Space Cat 16.0% $1.24 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $1.00 | $12.25 +449.1% | $2.73 +22.5% | 20.0% | +147.6% | $2.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  30.0% $27.17 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $8.90 Melondrama  23.3% $8.86 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $8.77 | $27.17 +115.8% | $14.34 +13.9% | 30.0% | +66.7% | $12.59 | — |