The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade WW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Well-Worn
Inputs
Gunsmoke
4x $2.37
O-Ranger
2x $0.05
Basket Halftone
2x $0.06
Grey Ghost
1x $0.07
Steel Work
1x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Anodized Navy
20.0% $35.31
Brass
20.0% $9.49
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $0.61
Coral Bloom
10.0% $0.49
Red Tide
10.0% $0.34
Blush Pour
10.0% $0.33
Max Win
$35.31 (+236.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.20 (-12.4%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+128.8%
Cost
$10.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.50
Ask Price EV $9.20 (-12.4%)
Bid Price EV $8.00 (-23.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.30 (-12.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.50 (-23.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.20 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.50
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $35.31 (+236.3%)
Worst Case $0.30 (-97.1%)
Volatility +128.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$24.81
Avg Loss -$7.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.30 (-97.1%)
Std Dev $13.52
Avg Norm Float 0.4429
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 48h 26m
Oldest Output Price 149h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.60 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | O-Ranger
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 41S //TOTAL COST $10.50 //ASK PRICE EV $9.20 //BID PRICE EV $8.00 //ASK PROFIT $-1.30 (-12.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.50 (-23.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $35.31 //VOLATILITY +128.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$35.31
+$24.81
+236.3%
$33.55
+$23.05
+219.5%
$1.76
5.0%
—
LOSS THIN BID
20.0%
$9.49
-$1.01
-9.6%
$5.37
-$5.13
-48.9%
$4.12
43.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.61
-$9.89
-94.2%
$0.53
-$9.97
-95.0%
$0.08
13.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.49
-$10.01
-95.3%
$0.41
-$10.09
-96.1%
$0.08
16.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.34
-$10.16
-96.8%
$0.32
-$10.18
-97.0%
$0.02
5.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.33
-$10.17
-96.9%
$0.31
-$10.19
-97.0%
$0.02
6.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.31
-$10.19
-97.0%
$0.28
-$10.22
-97.3%
$0.03
10.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.30
-$10.20
-97.1%
$0.29
-$10.21
-97.2%
$0.01
4.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.0354304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.44288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 9.4945,
"optimistic_value": 9.33,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 5.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:54.604544Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.22230848768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:26.407297Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33346251008,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 0.4905,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 0.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:24.351323Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.22144,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.3135,
"optimistic_value": 0.31,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:38.647707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.26572799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.3035,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:17.792854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.33216,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 0.34,
"optimistic_value": 0.34,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 0.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T00:22:48.580890Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.30046352128,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.3305,
"optimistic_value": 0.32,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:22.750353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e541dffcda85d29ffc244cd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "508487023588358342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "503983423967333359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 2.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "500605092739474571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "509612292237550287",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T08:46:05.835728Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "500605889842232543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:51:08.195145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503982792732398611",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:48:28.696585Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "506234592353884932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:01:33.806708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "630083017733692770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:46.220957Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-41452c191f44",
"listing_id": "498354089952853087",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | O-Ranger",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41452c191f44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:51:08.195145Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "503983537176021007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:51:16.384830Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 20.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 20.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 10.0% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +427.1% | $45.08 +30.7% | 40.0% | +193.6% | $34.48 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 15.0% $4.96 Red Tide 15.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 15.0% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +1575.0% | $13.35 +23.1% | 10.0% | +357.4% | $10.85 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.48 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.21 | $181.74 +292.6% | $55.65 +20.2% | 25.0% | +152.7% | $46.29 | — |