The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
4x $3.80
Citric Acid
3x $1.19
Steel Work
2x $1.33
Sedimentary
1x $2.08
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
20.0% $181.74
Anodized Navy
20.0% $35.31
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.96
Red Tide
10.0% $3.32
Blush Pour
10.0% $2.51
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.24
Max Win
$181.74 (+427.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$45.08 (+30.7%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+201.5%
Cost
$34.48
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $34.48
Ask Price EV $45.08 (+30.7%)
Bid Price EV $32.30 (-6.3%)
Ask Profit $10.60 (+30.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.18 (-6.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $12.78 (+37.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$10.60
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.18
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $181.74 (+427.1%)
Worst Case $1.81 (-94.7%)
Volatility +201.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$74.05
Avg Loss -$31.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.81 (-94.7%)
Std Dev $69.49
Avg Norm Float 0.0691
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 148h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.80 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$7.37 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$9.04 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.87 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 27S //TOTAL COST $34.48 //ASK PRICE EV $45.08 //BID PRICE EV $32.30 //ASK PROFIT $10.60 (+30.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.18 (-6.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $181.74 //VOLATILITY +201.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$181.74
+$147.26
+427.1%
$120.00
+$85.52
+248.0%
$61.74
34.0%
—
PAPER WIN
20.0%
$35.31
+$0.83
+2.4%
$33.55
-$0.93
-2.7%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.96
-$29.52
-85.6%
$4.92
-$29.56
-85.7%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.32
-$31.16
-90.4%
$3.30
-$31.18
-90.4%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.51
-$31.97
-92.7%
$2.09
-$32.39
-93.9%
$0.42
16.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.24
-$32.24
-93.5%
$2.09
-$32.39
-93.9%
$0.15
6.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.84
-$32.64
-94.7%
$1.77
-$32.71
-94.9%
$0.07
3.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.81
-$32.67
-94.7%
$1.77
-$32.71
-94.9%
$0.04
2.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.0055256,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06907,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 181.7415,
"optimistic_value": 150.91,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 120,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:58.072873Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03467044627,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.074240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052005634870000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034535,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.814,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.980885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041442,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.8385,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:36.668543Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0518025,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:40.255783Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04685922917,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.5145,
"optimistic_value": 2.49,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.808649Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e541dffcda85d29ffc244cd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.8,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "627827340795868318",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:16.529686Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524249529996069051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:16.529686Z"
},
{
"price": 7.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524248990847644659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:42.155960Z"
},
{
"price": 9.04,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "492723793460621925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:42.155960Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:00:01.442363Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "648097416171584456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:32.356667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "510738192173825854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:32.356667Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "528752590503972285",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:00:01.442363Z"
},
{
"price": 1.87,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "523123091079301534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:00:01.442363Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "491598524989874042",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:45.341764Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 10.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 10.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 13.3% $4.96 Red Tide 13.3% $3.32 Blush Pour 13.3% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $2.24 | $181.74 +919.3% | $23.93 +34.2% | 20.0% | +293.1% | $17.83 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 15.0% $4.96 Red Tide 15.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 15.0% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.18 | $181.74 +1537.3% | $13.36 +20.4% | 10.0% | +349.4% | $11.10 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.24 | $181.74 +292.6% | $55.65 +20.2% | 25.0% | +152.7% | $46.29 | — |