The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
4x $3.49
Steel Work
3x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Citric Acid
1x $0.32
Grey Ghost
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
20.0% $40.55
Anodized Navy
20.0% $35.31
Coral Bloom
10.0% $1.36
Red Tide
10.0% $1.05
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $1.01
Blush Pour
10.0% $0.94
Max Win
$40.55 (+121.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.76 (-13.8%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+99.4%
Cost
$18.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.29
Ask Price EV $15.76 (-13.8%)
Bid Price EV $12.96 (-29.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.53 (-13.8%)
Bid Profit $-5.33 (-29.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.80 (+15.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.53
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.33
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $40.55 (+121.7%)
Worst Case $0.72 (-96.1%)
Volatility +99.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$19.64
Avg Loss -$17.31
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.72 (-96.1%)
Std Dev $18.18
Avg Norm Float 0.1500
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.49 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.80 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 40S //TOTAL COST $18.29 //ASK PRICE EV $15.76 //BID PRICE EV $12.96 //ASK PROFIT $-2.53 (-13.8%) //BID PROFIT $-5.33 (-29.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $40.55 //VOLATILITY +99.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$40.55
+$22.26
+121.7%
$28.61
+$10.32
+56.4%
$11.94
29.5%
—
BIG WIN
20.0%
$35.31
+$17.02
+93.1%
$33.55
+$15.26
+83.4%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.36
-$16.93
-92.6%
$1.15
-$17.14
-93.7%
$0.21
15.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.05
-$17.24
-94.3%
$1.00
-$17.29
-94.5%
$0.05
4.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.01
-$17.29
-94.5%
$0.89
-$17.40
-95.1%
$0.11
11.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.94
-$17.35
-94.9%
$0.82
-$17.47
-95.5%
$0.12
12.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.80
-$17.49
-95.6%
$0.74
-$17.55
-96.0%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.72
-$17.57
-96.1%
$0.70
-$17.59
-96.2%
$0.02
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.011996800000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 40.553,
"optimistic_value": 38.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 28.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:52.450752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07527407156,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11291103236,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.07498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.72,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:39.882720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.089976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.8035,
"optimistic_value": 0.8,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:41.055862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11247000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.05,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:14.555113Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10173751276000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:47:51.585735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e541dffcda85d29ffc244cd",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "517494222854307622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:55.554844Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "639086339885251905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:55.554844Z"
},
{
"price": 3.8,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "627827340795868318",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:55.554844Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524249529996069051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:55.554844Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "505109437006752140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:36.901971Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "525375740885273911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:48.480786Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "502857689862568384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:09:41.166364Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "494976390477373962",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:46.493666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "499480042827445393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:18.524356Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "500605092737805575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:18.524356Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 20.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 20.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 10.0% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +427.1% | $45.08 +30.7% | 40.0% | +193.6% | $34.48 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 15.0% $4.96 Red Tide 15.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 15.0% $2.51 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.24 | $181.74 +1575.0% | $13.35 +23.1% | 10.0% | +357.4% | $10.85 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.48 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.21 | $181.74 +292.6% | $55.65 +20.2% | 25.0% | +152.7% | $46.29 | — |