The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Mainframe 001
2x $0.13
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Runic
2x $0.15
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.19
Connexion
10.0% $0.71
Kitbash
10.0% $0.69
Brother
10.0% $0.69
Monster Call
10.0% $0.67
Max Win
$5.85 (+155.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.35 (+2.7%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+92.2%
Cost
$2.29
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.29
Ask Price EV $2.35 (+2.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.06 (-9.9%)
Ask Profit $0.06 (+2.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.23 (-9.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.06
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+155.5%)
Worst Case $0.65 (-71.5%)
Volatility +92.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.56
Avg Loss -$1.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.65 (-71.5%)
Std Dev $2.11
Avg Norm Float 0.4133
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 143h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 05S //TOTAL COST $2.29 //ASK PRICE EV $2.35 //BID PRICE EV $2.06 //ASK PROFIT $0.06 (+2.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.23 (-9.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +92.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.85
+$3.56
+155.5%
$4.91
+$2.62
+114.4%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.19
-$0.10
-4.5%
$2.14
-$0.15
-6.6%
$0.05
2.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$1.58
-69.0%
$0.64
-$1.65
-72.1%
$0.07
9.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.69
-$1.60
-69.7%
$0.64
-$1.65
-72.1%
$0.05
7.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.69
-$1.60
-69.9%
$0.55
-$1.74
-76.0%
$0.14
20.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$1.62
-70.7%
$0.59
-$1.70
-74.2%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.65
-$1.64
-71.5%
$0.58
-$1.71
-74.7%
$0.07
11.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.310005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.289338,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.425168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.330672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:08:51.887567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41334,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:58.663403Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41334,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.330672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6934999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:56:34.542341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.41334,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.69,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:36:25.969052Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e3a95b6bfc6aa831c92cd4a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "492724590625972629",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:01.817695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472738292959487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:11:08.154916Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:06.672943Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:01.817695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "777568947981917582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:19:06.672943Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "508487136897723158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490550151956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:12:48.662374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "520872088106937408",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:54.250205Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.71 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.49 +16.9% | 50.0% | +118.5% | $3.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.71 Allure 10.0% $1.71 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 | $26.93 +145.2% | $11.14 +1.5% | 50.0% | +92.1% | $10.98 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.52 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +178.9% | $5.32 +21.1% | 60.0% | +105.2% | $4.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.52 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.71 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +114.8% | $6.85 +20.2% | 40.0% | +78.1% | $5.70 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.18 Kitbash 2.0% $0.71 Brother 2.0% $0.70 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 Allure 2.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +90.6% | $3.68 +20.0% | 45.0% | +63.8% | $3.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.28 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.00 +17.8% | 35.0% | +90.8% | $5.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.29 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +275.6% | $3.73 +14.5% | 40.0% | +133.4% | $3.26 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.52 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.71 Brother 14.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +363.8% | $3.02 +14.3% | 30.0% | +151.8% | $2.64 | — |