The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Gnarled
1x $0.47
Ol' Rusty
1x $1.19
Ultralight
1x $1.41
Runic
1x $1.62
Freight
1x $1.70
Creep
3x $1.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
25.0% $14.71
Brother
10.0% $11.42
Allure
10.0% $8.88
Monster Call
10.0% $8.24
Connexion
10.0% $7.01
Max Win
$26.93 (+61.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$14.52 (-12.9%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+46.5%
Cost
$16.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.68
Ask Price EV $14.52 (-12.9%)
Bid Price EV $14.01 (-16.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.16 (-12.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.67 (-16.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.51 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.16
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.67
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+61.4%)
Worst Case $5.56 (-66.7%)
Volatility +46.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$10.25
Avg Loss -$6.29
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.56 (-66.7%)
Std Dev $7.76
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 4h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.98 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 15S //TOTAL COST $16.68 //ASK PRICE EV $14.52 //BID PRICE EV $14.01 //ASK PROFIT $-2.16 (-12.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.67 (-16.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +46.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$26.93
+$10.25
+61.4%
$26.63
+$9.95
+59.7%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$14.71
-$1.97
-11.8%
$13.15
-$3.53
-21.2%
$1.56
10.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.42
-$5.26
-31.5%
$11.24
-$5.44
-32.6%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.88
-$7.80
-46.8%
$8.83
-$7.85
-47.1%
$0.05
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$8.24
-$8.44
-50.6%
$8.11
-$8.57
-51.4%
$0.13
1.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.01
-$9.67
-58.0%
$6.99
-$9.69
-58.1%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$5.56
-$11.12
-66.7%
$5.52
-$11.16
-66.9%
$0.04
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052320000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.7125,
"optimistic_value": 14.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:37.229552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:58:08.645879Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.8805,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:26.761725Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:02:11.221735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.055808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.557,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:40.412599Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:05:19.383865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e3a95b6bfc6aa831c92cd4a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "500605889841250067",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Gnarled (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:59.299440Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "643593816554451037",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.098639Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:21.493704Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:26.903171Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "516368436282328550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:22.390824Z"
},
{
"price": 1.43,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "507361289453312365",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.98,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "653726915754482667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:43.493041Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:34.821755Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:53:12.484888Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28 Monster Call 10.0% $0.74 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Connexion 10.0% $0.71 Brother 10.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +218.9% | $4.49 +16.9% | 50.0% | +118.5% | $3.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.19 Connexion 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.69 Brother 10.0% $0.69 Monster Call 10.0% $0.67 | $5.85 +155.5% | $2.35 +2.7% | 25.0% | +89.2% | $2.29 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.71 Allure 10.0% $1.71 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.33 | $26.93 +145.2% | $11.14 +1.5% | 50.0% | +92.1% | $10.98 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.52 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +178.9% | $5.32 +21.1% | 60.0% | +105.2% | $4.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.52 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.71 Brother 4.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +114.8% | $6.85 +20.2% | 40.0% | +78.1% | $5.70 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 45.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.18 Kitbash 2.0% $0.71 Brother 2.0% $0.70 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 Allure 2.0% $0.69 | $5.85 +90.6% | $3.68 +20.0% | 45.0% | +63.8% | $3.07 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.28 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Brother 6.0% $0.71 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.00 +17.8% | 35.0% | +90.8% | $5.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.29 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +275.6% | $3.73 +14.5% | 40.0% | +133.4% | $3.26 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.52 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.71 Brother 14.0% $0.71 | $12.25 +363.8% | $3.02 +14.3% | 30.0% | +151.8% | $2.64 | — |