The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ultralight
2x $0.14
Runic
1x $0.15
Mainframe 001
1x $0.19
Ol' Rusty
1x $0.28
Grip Tape
2x $0.34
The Daily Deagle
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $12.25
Trace Lock
25.0% $4.51
Monster Call
10.0% $0.74
Allure
10.0% $0.74
Connexion
10.0% $0.70
Brother
10.0% $0.70
Max Win
$12.25 (+217.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.54 (+17.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+122.0%
Cost
$3.86
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.86
Ask Price EV $4.54 (+17.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.19 (+8.7%)
Ask Profit $0.68 (+17.7%)
Bid Profit $0.33 (+8.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+9.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.68
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.33
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+217.2%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-82.6%)
Volatility +122.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.52
Avg Loss -$3.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-82.6%)
Std Dev $4.71
Avg Norm Float 0.1987
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 142h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 52S //TOTAL COST $3.86 //ASK PRICE EV $4.54 //BID PRICE EV $4.19 //ASK PROFIT $0.68 (+17.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.33 (+8.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +122.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$12.25
+$8.39
+217.2%
$11.36
+$7.50
+194.3%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN
25.0%
$4.51
+$0.65
+16.8%
$4.10
+$0.24
+6.2%
$0.41
9.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$3.12
-80.7%
$0.69
-$3.17
-82.1%
$0.05
7.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$3.12
-80.9%
$0.69
-$3.17
-82.1%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$3.16
-81.8%
$0.62
-$3.24
-83.9%
$0.08
11.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.70
-$3.16
-81.9%
$0.66
-$3.20
-82.9%
$0.04
5.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.67
-$3.19
-82.6%
$0.63
-$3.23
-83.7%
$0.04
6.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.149055,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.139118,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.5089999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:25.405946Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.15899200000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:57:36.899998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.744,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T10:06:18.050993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.15899200000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:30.743161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.19874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:52.273117Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6e3a95b6bfc6aa831c92cd4a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "490472738292959487",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:17.220175Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:15.909987Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "646971516261106184",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:43.307567Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "503983589619445987",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:47.467171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "524249735516767095",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:18.920802Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605889841196571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:44.720257Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "490472625090080439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "491598690699020822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:57.071423Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590626126853",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:35.251852Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249735517932847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:54.971728Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.83 Allure 10.0% $1.70 Monster Call 10.0% $1.58 Brother 10.0% $1.54 Connexion 10.0% $1.28 | $26.93 +152.6% | $11.17 +4.8% | 50.0% | +95.0% | $10.66 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Connexion 10.0% $0.70 Brother 10.0% $0.69 Monster Call 10.0% $0.67 Kitbash 10.0% $0.67 | $5.85 +155.5% | $2.36 +3.1% | 25.0% | +89.2% | $2.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.48 Monster Call 8.0% $0.74 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.70 Brother 8.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +179.6% | $5.30 +21.0% | 60.0% | +105.6% | $4.38 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.51 Monster Call 4.0% $0.74 Allure 4.0% $0.74 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 Brother 4.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +114.1% | $6.84 +19.6% | 40.0% | +77.9% | $5.72 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.51 Monster Call 6.0% $0.74 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.70 Brother 6.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +140.6% | $6.08 +19.4% | 35.0% | +90.2% | $5.09 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.52 Monster Call 2.0% $0.74 Allure 2.0% $0.74 Brother 2.0% $0.71 Connexion 2.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +90.7% | $7.62 +18.6% | 45.0% | +65.6% | $6.42 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.52 Monster Call 12.0% $0.74 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.71 Connexion 12.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +276.8% | $3.78 +16.4% | 40.0% | +133.9% | $3.25 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Achroma Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.51 Monster Call 14.0% $0.74 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.70 Brother 14.0% $0.70 | $12.25 +353.5% | $3.01 +11.5% | 30.0% | +148.4% | $2.70 | — |