The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Orange Peel
1x $0.31
Safari Mesh
2x $0.47
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Rose Nacre
1x $0.46
Ocean Topo
2x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $9.44
Damascus Steel
10.0% $4.76
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.37
VariCamo
10.0% $2.91
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.65
Max Win
$9.44 (+56.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.85 (-36.3%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+33.8%
Cost
$6.05
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.05
Ask Price EV $3.85 (-36.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.79 (-37.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.20 (-36.3%)
Bid Profit $-2.26 (-37.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.20
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.26
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $9.44 (+56.1%)
Worst Case $2.18 (-64.0%)
Volatility +33.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$3.39
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.18 (-64.0%)
Std Dev $2.05
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 144h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Orange Peel
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
AK-47 | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AK-47 | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 42S //TOTAL COST $6.05 //ASK PRICE EV $3.85 //BID PRICE EV $3.79 //ASK PROFIT $-2.20 (-36.3%) //BID PROFIT $-2.26 (-37.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $9.44 //VOLATILITY +33.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.44
+$3.39
+56.1%
$9.40
+$3.35
+55.4%
$0.04
0.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.76
-$1.29
-21.3%
$4.63
-$1.42
-23.5%
$0.13
2.7%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$1.59
-26.3%
$4.43
-$1.62
-26.8%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.37
-$2.68
-44.2%
$3.34
-$2.71
-44.8%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.91
-$3.14
-51.9%
$2.88
-$3.17
-52.4%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$3.40
-56.2%
$2.62
-$3.43
-56.7%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$3.41
-56.4%
$2.62
-$3.43
-56.7%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.18
-$3.87
-64.0%
$2.00
-$4.05
-66.9%
$0.18
8.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048873999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.045383,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.810387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:01.299613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1755,
"optimistic_value": 2.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:49.117025Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.04189199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
"realistic_value": 2.9105,
"optimistic_value": 2.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:30.276999Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
"realistic_value": 9.4435,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:23.051966Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
"realistic_value": 4.7604999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.68,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
"conservative_value": 4.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:06.263014Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6dbd89ddfd1e03106ba3bb06",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-0464cbc467c0",
"listing_id": "524249787961831947",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Orange Peel",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0464cbc467c0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:11.306133Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-430436880a99",
"listing_id": "520872035662674276",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-430436880a99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:52.205386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-430436880a99",
"listing_id": "726902096765273813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AK-47 | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-430436880a99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:52.205386Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:53.716488Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:11.368795Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "520872088107001092",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.609663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:59.096487Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "491598690698614598",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.609663Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 14.0% $3.37 VariCamo 10.0% $2.91 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.88 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.12 | $3.37 +113.5% | $2.00 +26.6% | 66.0% | +45.6% | $1.58 | — |
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.88 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.12 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.10 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.09 Reef Grief 14.0% $1.07 VariCamo 10.0% $0.70 | $1.88 +132.2% | $1.00 +23.1% | 70.0% | +43.5% | $0.81 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 VariCamo 16.7% $2.91 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.18 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.88 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.12 | $3.37 +114.9% | $1.84 +17.2% | 56.7% | +47.4% | $1.57 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $6.94 Royal Guard  45.0% $1.36 Amber Fade  10.0% $0.86 | $6.94 +116.3% | $3.82 +19.1% | 45.0% | +88.1% | $3.21 | — |