The Revolution Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Re.built
2x $0.43
Cyberforce
1x $1.45
Copperflage
2x $0.64
Poplar Thicket
3x $0.97
Gold Leaf
2x $1.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $16.97
Glockingbird
35.0% $11.79
Banana Cannon
6.0% $9.06
Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $5.70
Umbral Rabbit
6.0% $4.31
Neoqueen
6.0% $3.13
Max Win
$16.97 (+11.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$11.48 (-24.4%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+33.7%
Cost
$15.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.19
Ask Price EV $11.48 (-24.4%)
Bid Price EV $11.37 (-25.2%)
Ask Profit $-3.71 (-24.4%)
Bid Profit $-3.82 (-25.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+0.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.71
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.82
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $16.97 (+11.7%)
Worst Case $1.44 (-90.5%)
Volatility +33.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.78
Avg Loss -$6.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.44 (-90.5%)
Std Dev $5.12
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 7h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.64 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$1.54 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Factory New
$3.17 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 44S //TOTAL COST $15.19 //ASK PRICE EV $11.48 //BID PRICE EV $11.37 //ASK PROFIT $-3.71 (-24.4%) //BID PROFIT $-3.82 (-25.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $16.97 //VOLATILITY +33.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$16.97
+$1.78
+11.7%
$16.88
+$1.69
+11.1%
$0.09
0.5%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$11.79
-$3.40
-22.4%
$11.56
-$3.63
-23.9%
$0.23
1.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.06
-$6.13
-40.4%
$9.02
-$6.17
-40.6%
$0.04
0.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.70
-$9.49
-62.5%
$5.68
-$9.51
-62.6%
$0.02
0.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.31
-$10.88
-71.6%
$4.29
-$10.90
-71.8%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.13
-$12.06
-79.4%
$3.12
-$12.07
-79.5%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.44
-$13.75
-90.5%
$1.41
-$13.78
-90.7%
$0.03
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0467392,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.786,
"optimistic_value": 11.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:30.554918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.052320000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 16.97,
"optimistic_value": 16.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 16.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:34.184967Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.052320000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.31,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:01.606918Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055808,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.7035,
"optimistic_value": 5.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:55.051007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2504608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.44,
"optimistic_value": 1.44,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:22:03.952204Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041856,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.1335,
"optimistic_value": 3.13,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:31.301412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.06,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:04.959706Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6d4d54f5ae5de456498442be",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "497228137695378905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:54.816413Z"
},
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "525375688037411647",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:43.026971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "516368541589225970",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:40.334123Z"
},
{
"price": 0.64,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "492724643507492625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "524248990822512231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:59.371595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.97,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "516368322946009778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:22.199813Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "529879340433366012",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.381303Z"
},
{
"price": 1.54,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "510739041955237846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:17.080525Z"
},
{
"price": 3.17,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "518620341244351756",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:17.080525Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:49.381303Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.55 Sakkaku 6.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 6.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 | $5.48 +81.5% | $3.48 +15.3% | 70.0% | +54.5% | $3.02 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Sheet Lightning 35.0% $16.97 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.79 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $4.31 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.13 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.64 Banana Cannon 6.0% $1.61 | $16.97 +67.2% | $10.79 +6.3% | 70.0% | +53.8% | $10.15 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.34 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.70 Sakkaku 10.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $1.36 Neoqueen 10.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 | $5.34 +128.3% | $2.79 +19.4% | 50.0% | +73.1% | $2.34 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.48 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.55 Sakkaku 8.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $1.36 Neoqueen 8.0% $1.07 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 | $5.48 +103.7% | $3.14 +16.6% | 60.0% | +64.2% | $2.69 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.54 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.57 Sakkaku 12.0% $1.44 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $1.39 Neoqueen 12.0% $0.97 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 | $5.54 +158.8% | $2.45 +14.7% | 40.0% | +81.3% | $2.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Green Energy  50.0% $36.26 Wild Child  16.7% $5.67 Duality  16.7% $5.27 Wicked Sick  16.7% $5.27 | $36.26 +102.7% | $20.83 +16.4% | 50.0% | +86.2% | $17.89 | — |