The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Spirit Board
1x $1.52
Ensnared
1x $2.30
Exchanger
3x $0.70
Co-Processor
2x $1.19
Facility Negative
2x $2.22
Acheron
1x $2.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
26.7% $55.76
Random Access
26.7% $19.63
Core Breach
26.7% $8.43
Night Terror
4.0% $3.99
Space Cat
4.0% $3.16
Zombie Offensive
4.0% $2.68
Max Win
$55.76 (+158.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.88 (+6.2%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+96.1%
Cost
$21.55
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.55
Ask Price EV $22.88 (+6.2%)
Bid Price EV $22.64 (+5.0%)
Ask Profit $1.33 (+6.2%)
Bid Profit $1.09 (+5.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.33
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.09
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $55.76 (+158.7%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-92.4%)
Volatility +96.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$34.21
Avg Loss -$10.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.65 (-92.3%)
Std Dev $20.71
Avg Norm Float 0.1000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 93h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.52 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.22 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Acheron
—
Minimal Wear
$2.65 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 26S //TOTAL COST $21.55 //ASK PRICE EV $22.88 //BID PRICE EV $22.64 //ASK PROFIT $1.33 (+6.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.09 (+5.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +96.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$55.76
+$34.21
+158.7%
$55.39
+$33.84
+157.0%
$0.37
0.7%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$19.63
-$1.92
-8.9%
$19.52
-$2.03
-9.4%
$0.11
0.6%
—
NUKE
26.7%
$8.43
-$13.12
-60.9%
$8.05
-$13.50
-62.6%
$0.38
4.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$3.99
-$17.56
-81.5%
$3.98
-$17.57
-81.5%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.16
-$18.39
-85.3%
$3.13
-$18.42
-85.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.68
-$18.87
-87.6%
$2.67
-$18.88
-87.6%
$0.01
0.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.65
-$19.90
-92.3%
$1.45
-$20.10
-93.3%
$0.20
12.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.64
-$19.91
-92.4%
$1.62
-$19.93
-92.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.634,
"optimistic_value": 19.62,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:40.398338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.09998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 8.428,
"optimistic_value": 8.4,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 8.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:25:54.122238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.09998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.99,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.775780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06698660000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.1615,
"optimistic_value": 3.13,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:11.308299Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0759848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.6535,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:44.882046Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:18.272761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6776eafb44f7a0f3860470e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.52,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "526501640650777937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:11.306304Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "526501535292873089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:22.802193Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:54.931326Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "498353293067394211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:03.325493Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "762930893774707950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:03.325493Z"
},
{
"price": 2.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "501731842661478209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
},
{
"price": 2.65,
"skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"listing_id": "496102290328885703",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Acheron",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:22.422125Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "502857524064278008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:33:35.131915Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "626705318028361343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:33:35.131915Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:2+collection-set-nuke-2:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 26.7% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 26.7% $3.34 Core Breach 26.7% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +98.1% | $2.61 +21.3% | 53.3% | +57.4% | $2.15 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Core Breach 23.3% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.01 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +129.0% | $2.40 +28.9% | 46.7% | +67.4% | $1.86 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Core Breach 20.0% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.01 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +149.0% | $2.19 +28.1% | 40.0% | +73.2% | $1.71 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach 13.3% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.65 Dream Glade 12.0% $1.64 | $19.63 +304.8% | $5.88 +21.1% | 40.0% | +117.3% | $4.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Core Breach 16.7% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.01 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +159.7% | $1.98 +20.8% | 33.3% | +75.0% | $1.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.63 Core Breach 6.7% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.65 Dream Glade 16.0% $1.64 | $19.63 +500.4% | $3.80 +16.2% | 20.0% | +140.7% | $3.27 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  25.0% $418.56 Remote Control  25.0% $94.77 Rapid Eye Movement  16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition  16.7% $34.92 Melondrama  16.7% $33.54 | $418.56 +242.6% | $146.31 +19.8% | 25.0% | +130.2% | $122.16 | — |