The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Spirit Board
2x $1.52
Exchanger
3x $0.70
Co-Processor
3x $1.30
Facility Negative
2x $2.22
↓
Possible Outputs
Nuclear Garden
26.7% $55.76
Core Breach
26.7% $29.13
Random Access
26.7% $19.63
Dream Glade
4.0% $8.63
Ticket to Hell
4.0% $4.90
Night Terror
4.0% $3.99
Max Win
$55.76 (+85.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$28.81 (-4.3%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+60.7%
Cost
$30.11
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $30.11
Ask Price EV $28.81 (-4.3%)
Bid Price EV $28.30 (-6.0%)
Ask Profit $-1.30 (-4.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.81 (-6.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.51 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.30
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.81
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $55.76 (+85.2%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-91.1%)
Volatility +60.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 46.7%
Avg Win +$25.65
Avg Loss -$11.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.16 (-89.5%)
Std Dev $18.26
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 93h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$1.52 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Minimal Wear
$1.30 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.22 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Facility Negative
—
Factory New
$2.78 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Factory New
$5.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Co-Processor
—
Factory New
$5.36 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Exchanger
—
Factory New
$5.57 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 32M 23S //TOTAL COST $30.11 //ASK PRICE EV $28.81 //BID PRICE EV $28.30 //ASK PROFIT $-1.30 (-4.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.81 (-6.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $55.76 //VOLATILITY +60.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$55.76
+$25.65
+85.2%
$55.39
+$25.28
+84.0%
$0.37
0.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$29.13
-$0.98
-3.2%
$27.72
-$2.39
-7.9%
$1.41
4.8%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$19.63
-$10.48
-34.8%
$19.52
-$10.59
-35.2%
$0.11
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.63
-$21.48
-71.3%
$8.54
-$21.57
-71.6%
$0.09
1.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.90
-$25.21
-83.7%
$4.89
-$25.22
-83.8%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.99
-$26.12
-86.7%
$3.98
-$26.13
-86.8%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.16
-$26.95
-89.5%
$3.13
-$26.98
-89.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.68
-$27.43
-91.1%
$2.67
-$27.44
-91.1%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.034965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8b56130194c8",
"realistic_value": 19.634,
"optimistic_value": 19.62,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Random Access",
"conservative_value": 19.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Random Access (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:40.398338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8b56130194c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96e7c9f4d6b6",
"realistic_value": 55.757,
"optimistic_value": 55.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden",
"conservative_value": 55.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T14:11:16.386274Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96e7c9f4d6b6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7444d53b5e17",
"realistic_value": 29.132,
"optimistic_value": 28.67,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach",
"conservative_value": 27.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:38:14.256920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7444d53b5e17.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:26.547850Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.99,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.775780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04685310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.1615,
"optimistic_value": 3.13,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:11.308299Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.05314680000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:57.711596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.034965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:30.687270Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_6776eafb44f7a0f3860470e5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.52,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "526501640650777937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:11.306304Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:11.306304Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "505109489448960284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:54.931326Z"
},
{
"price": 1.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "762930893774707950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:03.325493Z"
},
{
"price": 2.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "501731842661478209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "502857524064278008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:08.386699Z"
},
{
"price": 2.78,
"skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"listing_id": "518620235869057900",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:26.930593Z"
},
{
"price": 5.24,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "625576174787785567",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:13.631825Z"
},
{
"price": 5.36,
"skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"listing_id": "631206489564324809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:13.631825Z"
},
{
"price": 5.57,
"skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"listing_id": "515242536108790957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:08.386699Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:2+collection-set-nuke-2:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 26.7% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 26.7% $3.34 Core Breach 26.7% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.01 Night Terror 4.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +98.1% | $2.61 +21.3% | 53.3% | +57.4% | $2.15 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden 26.7% $55.76 Random Access 26.7% $19.63 Core Breach 26.7% $8.43 Night Terror 4.0% $3.99 Space Cat 4.0% $3.16 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $2.68 | $55.76 +158.7% | $22.88 +6.2% | 26.7% | +92.0% | $21.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 23.3% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 23.3% $3.34 Core Breach 23.3% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 6.0% $1.01 Night Terror 6.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +129.0% | $2.40 +28.9% | 46.7% | +67.4% | $1.86 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 20.0% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 20.0% $3.34 Core Breach 20.0% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 8.0% $1.01 Night Terror 8.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +149.0% | $2.19 +28.1% | 40.0% | +73.2% | $1.71 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 13.3% $19.63 Core Breach 13.3% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 13.3% $8.25 Zombie Offensive 12.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.65 Dream Glade 12.0% $1.64 | $19.63 +304.8% | $5.88 +21.1% | 40.0% | +117.3% | $4.85 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Random Access 16.7% $4.26 Nuclear Garden 16.7% $3.34 Core Breach 16.7% $1.48 Zombie Offensive 10.0% $1.01 Night Terror 10.0% $1.00 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $0.94 | $4.26 +159.7% | $1.98 +20.8% | 33.3% | +75.0% | $1.64 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Random Access 6.7% $19.63 Core Breach 6.7% $8.43 Nuclear Garden 6.7% $8.25 Zombie Offensive 16.0% $2.68 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.65 Dream Glade 16.0% $1.64 | $19.63 +500.4% | $3.80 +16.2% | 20.0% | +140.7% | $3.27 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  25.0% $418.56 Remote Control  25.0% $94.77 Rapid Eye Movement  16.7% $39.43 Abyssal Apparition  16.7% $34.92 Melondrama  16.7% $33.54 | $418.56 +242.6% | $146.31 +19.8% | 25.0% | +130.2% | $122.16 | — |