The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.42
Fragment
1x $1.61
Blush Pour
4x $0.95
Rose Hex
2x $1.84
Arsenic Spill
1x $3.23
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.84
Electrum
6.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
6.0% $5.02
Galigator
6.0% $3.27
Max Win
$33.42 (+128.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.98 (+16.0%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+72.2%
Cost
$14.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.64
Ask Price EV $16.98 (+16.0%)
Bid Price EV $16.24 (+10.9%)
Ask Profit $2.34 (+16.0%)
Bid Profit $1.60 (+10.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.74 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.60
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+128.3%)
Worst Case $3.11 (-78.7%)
Volatility +72.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$7.77
Avg Loss -$10.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.11 (-78.7%)
Std Dev $10.58
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 150h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$3.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 08S //TOTAL COST $14.64 //ASK PRICE EV $16.98 //BID PRICE EV $16.24 //ASK PROFIT $2.34 (+16.0%) //BID PROFIT $1.60 (+10.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +72.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$33.42
+$18.78
+128.3%
$31.48
+$16.84
+115.0%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
23.3%
$16.98
+$2.34
+16.0%
$16.48
+$1.84
+12.6%
$0.50
2.9%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$16.84
+$2.20
+15.0%
$16.69
+$2.05
+14.0%
$0.15
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.00
-$7.64
-52.2%
$5.93
-$8.71
-59.5%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.02
-$9.62
-65.7%
$3.97
-$10.67
-72.9%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.27
-$11.37
-77.6%
$3.18
-$11.46
-78.3%
$0.09
2.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.19
-$11.45
-78.2%
$3.13
-$11.51
-78.6%
$0.06
1.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.11
-$11.53
-78.7%
$3.08
-$11.56
-79.0%
$0.03
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0699675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0625043,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.8355,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:17.123305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.055973999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2725,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:32.492597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1915,
"optimistic_value": 3.16,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:04.586148Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09329,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1135,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:21.263787Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_66a4f23394b5c7dc2bfbcc5a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "491598743580366974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850543431869700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:21.803793Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z"
},
{
"price": 3.23,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "525375688037842243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:11.338640Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.44 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +182.7% | $7.27 +28.9% | 46.7% | +82.8% | $5.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.83 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $1.95 | $5.01 +88.2% | $2.87 +7.9% | 52.7% | +43.8% | $2.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +219.5% | $6.63 +32.8% | 60.0% | +91.4% | $4.99 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.44 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +303.6% | $5.22 +32.2% | 52.0% | +106.0% | $3.95 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.44 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +254.3% | $5.91 +31.3% | 50.0% | +98.3% | $4.50 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.83 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $1.95 | $5.01 +147.8% | $2.57 +27.2% | 60.7% | +40.7% | $2.02 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.44 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +155.1% | $7.95 +27.2% | 53.3% | +75.4% | $6.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.44 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +344.1% | $4.54 +26.5% | 44.0% | +106.9% | $3.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.44 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +130.0% | $8.64 +24.6% | 30.0% | +68.1% | $6.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.83 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $1.95 | $5.01 +131.8% | $2.65 +22.8% | 61.3% | +41.0% | $2.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.59 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.29 | $35.39 +130.2% | $18.42 +19.8% | 40.0% | +75.8% | $15.37 | — |